Peak Oil?

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The US military is now warning oil output may dip, causing massive shortages by 2015. The Pentagon expressed concern that the cost of crude oil may soon top $100 a barrel and surplus oil production capacity could disappear within two years.

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louisehartmann
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Jul. 31, 2007 4:01 pm

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Peak oil is with us. Face it, production cannot keep up with demand, especially when demand increases as during an increase in economic activity. We are past peak, not heading into it, regardless of what the "drill baby, drill" crowd say. Note that "peak oil" does not mean that we have run out of oil!

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jeffbiss
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Jul. 31, 2007 4:01 pm

That doesn't bode well for an economy built upon oil use.

The military, being the largest single user of oil on the planet, will probably have to have its budget increased above the usual 9% per year.

The Germans are way ahead of us on this one. Government guaranteed loans to install solar panels on one's roof...and a purchasing of the power by energy companies at a cost greater than the loan payback.

The homeowner makes a profit.....it's done at a cheaper cost than building/supplying new nuclear or oil generated power plants..In effect, German homeowners become profitable mini-energy producers and the nation reduces its reliance on oil.

Retired Monk - "Ideology is a disease"

polycarp2
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Jul. 31, 2007 4:01 pm

The problem's even bigger than people may think, being deluded by alternative energy sources, as the global economy is for all intents and purposes totally dependent on oil. There is no alternative. With the election of Reagan the American people have made it clear that waste was our mode of operation and sustainability was not even a remote concern. For us to avoid economic collapse, we need to develop a sustainable economy that is not built on growth while we change our lifestyles to become ever more efficient and reverse human population growth to negative.

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jeffbiss
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Jul. 31, 2007 4:01 pm

We have the technology in place to reduce our oil usage by 20% that we get from the Middle East. Hybrids could be easily made to run on flex fuel with the addition of the technology used in flex fuel vehicles now. Brazil has transitioned off of oil and using ethanol. Also, we are getting closer to creating ethanol from garbage in the form of cellulosic ethanol. This would be a major break through.

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Dan4liberty
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Jul. 31, 2007 4:01 pm

Brazil is shipping its oil to China...minus the dollar as a medium of exchange. Auto production in China/India is projected to surpass that of the U.S....quickly.

India's new middle class is larger than the entire population of the U.S. The new Tata Auto factory has a ready market. The brain drain has been reversed....former skilled personnel once living/contributing to the U.S. economy are returning to India.

Greenspan noted failures in the U.S. educational system hadn't yet reached a critical mass. He said the deficit could be made up by importing trained personnel. That's no longer so. They are returning home...and buying cars...enjoying their own culture and their families with a now satisying standard of living.. The Tata retails for around $2,000.

Global oIl demand is going up...not down. Pricing will follow suit.

For those living in the Denver area, India TV is available once a day on one of the channel 12 broadcast channels. 3rd one.

Retired Monk - "Ideology is a disease"

polycarp2
Joined:
Jul. 31, 2007 4:01 pm
We have the technology in place to reduce our oil usage by 20% that we get from the Middle East. Hybrids could be easily made to run on flex fuel with the addition of the technology used in flex fuel vehicles now. Brazil has transitioned off of oil and using ethanol. Also, we are getting closer to creating ethanol from garbage in the form of cellulosic ethanol. This would be a major break through.

I don't see us making the real changes to make those things even part of the "solution". Where's the technology that reduces our oil usage by 20%? Ethanol, and in fact all biofuels, are not a solution as they simply delude us into thinking that we don't have to change our lifestyles while they deplete the soil, devastate wildlife habitat as its transitioned to produce biofuels, deplete groundwater as it's used to irrigate biofuel crops, enlarge dead zones from the use of fertilizers, etc.

The breakthough would be for us to realize that we need to make fundamental changes to create a sustainable economy and use less resources overall. Changing to "alternatives" without reducing our need for energy will serve only to delude us and make the impending catastrophe even worse. Biofuels that do not displace crops or wildlife must be the goal, but we need to make those fundamental lifestyle changes to make that goal a reality.

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jeffbiss
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Jul. 31, 2007 4:01 pm

Yep. Attempting to sustain the ultimately unsustainable really isn't the adjustments we should be making.

Univ. studies show the U.S. may be heading for food shortages....because even its agricultural/industrial farming policies aren't sustainable. We're going to place the burden of producing bio-fuels on top of that?

Ren once posted a link to those studies. Eye -openers.

Retired Monk - "Ideology is a disease"

polycarp2
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Jul. 31, 2007 4:01 pm

This notion of all or nothing is self defeating. You need to wake up to the reality that technology will help lead us to better use of the energy we have. Read the book Energy Victory by Robert Zubrin. He pretty mush spells it out as it is. The major problem is getting our politician off of campaign financing by corporations, like oil, to public funded. Now real change can happen, until then we are being manipulated by the too big to fail banks who bank role corporations.

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Dan4liberty
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Jul. 31, 2007 4:01 pm

That biofuels are not sustainable is shown by the fact that they displace wildlife habitat and crop lands. Brazil can only grow sugar cane for waste as a fuel by either a) replacing a food crop with sugar cane or (b) destroying wildlife habitat to grow sugar cane. Add that to the other environmental degradations on Brazil's impact list, and you'll see that the "solution" simply adds to the greater problem of degradation.

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jeffbiss
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Jul. 31, 2007 4:01 pm

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