spill over from Euro train wreck to Pres. election.

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smilingcat
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Seems most of the progressive talk show host gleefully announced the latest government job report. Sure its great, we are heading in the right direction and if this keeps up, Obama will have a good chance of being re-elected.

Only saving grace for Mr. Obama over Mitt Romney is not so much for the economic planning, the two are not all that different; but, one significant difference between the two is that Mr. Obama will most likely nominate a moderate for the supreme court, while Romney will nominate a ultra right wing shill.

so what is this about the spill over from Euro train wreck?

Greek tragedy is ongoing with final act coming up this summer or when the weather warms up. The 70% cut asked of the private investors is a tantamount to sovereign default. The remaining AAA rated countries are not pleased with the progress or lack thereof of the Greeks in dealing with the external debt.

Quote:
Dutch Finance Minister Jan Kees De Jager said he and his colleagues from the other three AAA-rated eurozone countries — Germany, Luxembourg and Finland — "are not satisfied with Greece's progress...

"We want a serious commitment from the Greek government and the opposition. They need to show concrete action as soon as possible," De Jager wrote on his blog after a meeting of finance ministers from the four triple-A countries in Berlin.

"The IMF rightly is demanding a reduction in the minimum wage and a major reduction in the number of civil servants,"

Meanwhile

Quote:
In a letter to the government Friday, Greek unions and employers said they rejected proposals to slash the minimum wage and further cut annual salaries. Private sector workers have already suffered a 14 percent loss in income due to emergency taxes imposed since the beginning of 2010, the letter said.
show a significant disconnect between the technical governmnet of PM Papademos and Finance minister Venizelos with his countrymen. It does not help nor will they find a common ground when being pushed by the troioka.

The Greek tragedy is not coming to a good resolution. This is seen clearly from the fact the Finance Minister Venizelos have been saying we will have an agreement any day. "Its a tough negotiation", "We are making progress", "We are getting over some hurdle" None of this is reassuring that the talk is really progressing toward an acceptable resolution for all parties. It is not.

Greece will see a major civil uprising and possibly decay into civil war when the weather warms up. When Greek defaults in uncontrolled manner, Euro will be severely tested. Spain will default then Italy, Ireland, the domino effect. If this were to happen, Euro economy will collapse. The shockwave from the out of control cascade of defaults and collapse of Euro economy will cause our stock market to take a major hit followed by major upheavel of our economy.  This will most likely happen before Nov. election. If the election were to happen after the economic collapse, re-election of Mr. Obama is not certain.

The progressive talk show should be far more cautious in the job report from the government. It can turn overnight.And what happens if Greece defaults on Mar. 20? March 20 is the date when next Euro16+billion (bonds) become due. Greece is in no shape to payout.

Rise out of ashes is slow and painful. Economic collapse is extremely swift and will happen without warning. Our economic turnaround could evaporate at a snap of a finger.

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smilingcat
smilingcat's picture
More interesting news from

More interesting news from Europe. It's not good.

The creditors are drawing a line in the sand. Both sides are playing brinksmanship game. The creditor nations including Germans know that they can not afford a uncontrolled default on Greece. Yet they have said to the Greeks that they WILL HAVE TO ACCEPT THE TERMS OF THE  OFFER. IF NOT, THE CREDITORS ARE WILLING TO LET GREECE DEFAULT. The sticking point of the offers are:

lower minimum wage

disallow 13th month and 14th month bonus pay every year

are the two big items. Average Greek citizens are not willing to go along.  And most recently, one of the officials did point out a possibility of social upheavel and unrest to come if Greece is pushed on the matters of bonus and minumum wage.

Creditors are hoping that average Greeks are going to blink. Polls says that majority of Greeks do not want to be kicked out of Euro and go back to using Drachmas.

Greeks are hoping that creditors will find it more bitter if the Greeks default and cause a shockwave to run through the Euro economies than give money to the Greeks.

Add to this this fuel is that the latest polls out of Germany says that the Germans on the whole wants Greece to be kicked out of the Euro.

smilingcat
smilingcat's picture
Well I thought that the Greek

Well I thought that the Greek tragedy's final act was going to be around Mar. 20, the due date of the 14.5Billion Euros. I guessed wrong.

As proof to why we should care about Greek  tragedy is look at today's DJIA. Another proof of when I said

Quote:
Rise out of ashes is slow and painful. Economic collapse is extremely swift and will happen without warning. Our economic turnaround could evaporate at a snap of a finger.
Today the DJIA dropped by over 1% 100+ points intra day, closing down at just over 80 points. The last few days it has been inching up 20-50points/day.

The German public, around 80%, wants the Greeks to be booted out of Euro, the German ministers are of the same mind, the Germans are making additional demands of 350million Euro cut. The Greeks on their part are fed up with 5 years of austerity

Quote:
“We don’t have much more to lose,” said Stavros, a 28-year-old architect as he sprayed graffiti on a shuttered department store. “Six years studying, another doing military service and no chance of a job … What can you expect?”
This is from Financial times http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/93358966-53d9-11e1-9eac-00144feabdc0.html....

Five of the Greek ministers have resigned though most are from LAOS party, too small to effect the outcome, it doesn't bode well.

Today's weather in Athen is not conducive to demonstration yet they battled the greek riot police. If this weekend weather in Athens is no rain or light drizzle, I don't think Greek government will survive the weekend. I do not see how the Greek government will agree to additional 350 million euros when they still have not agreed to demands made prior to Thursday by the troika.

Today's DJIA drop is just a foreshadow of what can happen if Greeks go through with chaotic default on Mar. 20. Most of the deals need to be agreed to by Feb. 15 next Wed. I don't think its going to happen.

Most here are only concerned with US economy as though it is isolated on its own island. But that is not the case. You need to think what is going on elsewhere. As an example, Glaxo-Smith Kline are transferring its daily Euro profit into UK banks in anticipation of Greek default. So are other multi-nationals. At end of each day, these companies are transferring its euro profit into UK banks.

American companies are not immune to Euro trouble. Basic metals took a hit today because of Greek tragedy...

Mr. Obama is going to have a tough re-election fight.

DRC
DRC's picture
Do you think we will vote for

Do you think we will vote for Mitt and the Banksters of the IMF, or join the Greeks and OWS and tell them to stick the debt where the sun does not shine?  Reacting to events will give Obama less reason to defend Wall St. and the IMF model even if Germany is discoverning that brinksmanship works both ways.  Go Iceland!  They are giving their banksters the boot instead of paying it off.  It is the right response to fraud.

Phaedrus76
Phaedrus76's picture
Even 20% of Republicans say

Even 20% of Republicans say they are voting for Obama. Reelection is a done deal. People want to vote for people who advocate for solutions to the problems the nation is facing. All the GOP stands for is obstruction to solutions. Ironically, because they kept the stimulus smaller, and less effective, they seem to have created a situation that managed to retard economic growth at the state and local level in 09, 10 and 11, but now the population growth and business cycle upswing, coupled to stable federal, state, and local policies is leading to a bright 1st & 2nd qtr for the economy, at the time average voters start deciding.

polycarp2
It's interesting that the

It's interesting that the solutions for  the Greek, U.S.  and European economies are austerity and a dismanteling of gains made by the majority over a period of decades....such as this:

"The Troika wants Greece to cut the minimum wage to less than 600 euros a month (poverty level) and abolish holiday allowances altogether. They’re also demanding that supplementary pensions be cut by 35 percent. This same war on working people is being waged in every country hit by the crisis. The agents of big finance have replaced democratically-elected leaders in Greece and Italy and launched a full-blown assault on organized labor."

The  medicine proposed for China is just the opposite:

This is from the Wall Street Journal:

“China should be prepared to sharply stimulate its economy if Europe’s growth falls more than anticipated, the International Monetary Fund said, adding to expectations that Beijing could turn to spending if conditions significantly worsen.

In its China economic outlook report released on Monday, the IMF urged China to run a deficit of 2% of GDP rather than looking to reduce the country’s deficit as planned, given the uncertainty in the global economy.

If Europe’s problems turned out to be worse than expected, China should hit the fiscal gas pedal harder. In that case, “China should respond with a significant fiscal package” of about 3% of GDP, the IMF said…

However, the IMF warned that Beijing should execute any fresh stimulus through its budget rather than the banking system. China used a four trillion yuan, or about $635 billion, stimulus package in 2008 to help blunt the impact of the financial crisis, in large part through bank lending.” (“IMF Urges Beijing to Prepare Stimulus”, Wall Street Journal)

So, it’s thin gruel and hairshirts for Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy and Ireland, [and the U.S.] but lavish doses of fiscal stimulus for China? Why is that? And notice how the IMF even stipulates HOW China’s stimulus should be implemented–not through the “banking system” (monetary stimulus ala Helicopter Ben), but the old fashion way; Keynesian fiscal stimulus mainlined into the central bloodstream via the budget.

But doesn’t this just go-to-show that Troika policymakers really know that all this austerity bunkum is just nonsense?- MIKE WHITNEY

Full article here: http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/02/10/the-troika-blackmails-greece/

Retired Monk - "Ideology is a disease"

smilingcat
smilingcat's picture
Greece needs to exit the

Greece needs to exit the Euro!! Greece wil fail to obtain the euro 130 billion. They will default in earnest on Mar. 20. UNLESS, the Germans have a change of heart.

It will be more painful in the short run; but, I think it will be far better down the road.

I've been mulling over what it means to have asymetric economies using same currency and effects of not transferring money to make up for the asymetry. Different economic "zone" are: Greece, Spain, Italy, Germany, France...

Here in US we also have asymetric economies based on states. But the asymetry is balanced out by the outlay of federal money. California pays into the fed at $1.00 and gets in return something like $0.60-$0.80?? while places like Alabama pays int the fed at $1.00 and gets in return something like $1.16. The "rich" economy is propping up the "poor" economy. SOCIALISM OMG!!! But it has worked ever since we have gone to a common currency.

DRC
DRC's picture
And, it is always the states

And, it is always the states who get other people's money who complain the loudest about being taxed.