Why have there been more tornadoes than usual this year?

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Thom Hartmann A...
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The death toll in Wednesday’s early-morning tornado outbreak in the Midwest and South has reached 12 – with an additional 150 people injured form Kansas to Kentucky.  Mobile homes were ripped apart, roofs were torn off, and cars hurled through the air in states like Tennessee and Missouri where F-4 strength tornadoes were reported. 

There have already been more tornadoes than usual this year – signaling that another freak, deadly tornado season may be just around the corner, following last year’s tornado season that killed more than 550 Americans – the second deadliest year on record.  Climate Change is literally killing us, but Republican lawmakers continue to take money from big oil to ignore the obvious.

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Bush_Wacker
Bush_Wacker's picture
Don't blame global warming. 

Don't blame global warming.  It's merely one of the signs of the coming of the rapture.  The answer is to make as much money as you can anyway that you can as quickly as you can and enjoy your god given right to riches before you repent at the last moment.

rigel1
rigel1's picture
Bush_Wacker wrote: Don't

Bush_Wacker wrote:

Don't blame global warming.  It's merely one of the signs of the coming of the rapture.  The answer is to make as much money as you can anyway that you can as quickly as you can and enjoy your god given right to riches before you repent at the last moment.

No one will know the hour nor the day. Not even you BW. It will come like a thief in the night.

 But nice try anyway.

polycarp2
However, it takes a blind man

However, it takes a blind man to not be able to see the approach of the current "thief".. He isn't hiding behind the nearest tree. He's raising hell.

The projected weather changes from global warming are appearing right on schedule...If we stopped all global warming emissions tomorrow, they will still intensify by what's already been set in motion, before slowing reversing. .

 After 5 years, global warming is irreversible...and will acclerate well into the future.. Not to worry. After it accelerates enough to disrupt the Gulf Stream, we'll enter another ice age.  Don't throw away  your overcoat.

"Drill, baby, drill."

It isn't that we don't have the know-how to reverse it. We just lack the will to do so. within the time frame that matters.

Retired Monk - "Ideology is a disease".

Capital
Capital's picture
polycarp2 wrote: The

polycarp2 wrote:

The projected weather changes from global warming are appearing right on schedule...If we stopped all global warming emissions tomorrow, they will still intensify by what's already been set in motion, before slowing reversing. .

You mean all those "projected weather changes" from the IPCC that never came to pass.   All the susbseqence studies that there have been NO increase in extreme weather patterns and that certainly the Weather patterns are Not AGW affected.   That even if thier was a AGW signal in Rare extreme weather pattern it would Take over 100 year of monitering it to identify the AGW signal. 

 

No the more likely answer to Thom’s OP.  the Deaths were related to MORE PEOPLE living in Extreme weather areas.. 

 

DRC
DRC's picture
If you want a fine yarn and

If you want a fine yarn and an education on science from a great author, I recommend Sarah Andrews, IN COLD PURSUIT, set in Antartica.  Andrews has written a fine series about geologist Em Hansen set in Wyoming and Colorado where geology is taught in the form of mysteries.  She does the same with a new protagonist in the Last Continent and you learn about ice cores, lava, penguins and how scientists work and how science is done. 

There is a good balance between old geological climate change and why Antarctica once was a lush zone of life and how human intervention has become important in our new data.  It is not just that human beings are changing a static world that God created just as it is from the start; but it is that there are serious indications that something major is going on and a bit of humility and caution is called for. 

What is abundantly clear is that the scientists who go to far away places to put themselves at risk to learn are anything but profit seeking frauds.  On the other hand, those who trash science have profit axes they are grinding away very madly. 

Capital, the storms are stronger than in our memory, and it is not just that there are more people living in the danger zones.  There may be more deaths if there are more people, but it is the strength of the storms and the instability of our weather patterns that makes the objective observer take note.  While "global warming" may be too much of a gloss, the idea that we are going out of a period of stability and that human industrial contributions to the environment are a new factor of great interest is anything but hyperbolic or far fetched. 

I like science.

DRC
DRC's picture
Glad to see that you are

Glad to see that you are speechless in the face of cogency.  I rest my case.

Capital
Capital's picture
DRC wrote: Capital, the

DRC wrote:

Capital, the storms are stronger than in our memory, and it is not just that there are more people living in the danger zones.  There may be more deaths if there are more people, but it is the strength of the storms and the instability of our weather patterns that makes the objective observer take note.  While "global warming" may be too much of a gloss, the idea that we are going out of a period of stability and that human industrial contributions to the environment are a new factor of great interest is anything but hyperbolic or far fetched. 

I like science.

You may like science,  but you are not using any.

NOAA been keeping track of +3 torandos since the 1950's.  There has not been any upward trend in Tornados since the 70's.  

Capital
Capital's picture
DRC wrote: Glad to see that

DRC wrote:

Glad to see that you are speechless in the face of cogency.  I rest my case.

you wish

polycarp2
April 2011 is ranked as the
  • April 2011 is ranked as the most active tornado month on record with 753 tornadoes (For more information, please visit NOAA's Storm Prediction Center). There were an estimated 364 fatalities.
  • The previous record was set in April 1974 with 267 tornadoes.
  • The average number of tornadoes for the month of April during the past decade is 161.
Capital
Capital's picture
polycarp2 wrote: April 2011

polycarp2 wrote:

  • April 2011 is ranked as the most active tornado month on record with 753 tornadoes (For more information, please visit NOAA's Storm Prediction Center). There were an estimated 364 fatalities.
  • The previous record was set in April 1974 with 267 tornadoes.
  • The average number of tornadoes for the month of April during the past decade is 161.

What is the difference between an anomaly and a trend?

http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.files.wordpress.com/2012/01/image.png

Trend is clearly not AGW related.  Weather is not climate.

DRC
DRC's picture
What I wish, Capital, is that

What I wish, Capital, is that idiots would have the humility of silence.  You post my response with no response, and I wished that it would mean that you had gained the character of silence instead of being your old idiot self.  I know it is a wish.  But the problem is yours.  I still like science and you do not.  Your problem.

Capital
Capital's picture
DRC wrote: What I wish,

DRC wrote:

What I wish, Capital, is that idiots would have the humility of silence.  You post my response with no response, and I wished that it would mean that you had gained the character of silence instead of being your old idiot self.  I know it is a wish.  But the problem is yours.  I still like science and you do not.  Your problem.

Man you are a windbag. 

 

Clearly science is being talk about by everyone here EXCEPT you.   That is clearly your problem.  Seems you can't stomach basic factual exchanges.   Relying more on pointless bloviating as if that will enlighten the world.

 

Any feeling or insights on the NOAA trend maps for Tornados? 

polycarp2
Capital wrote: Weather is not

Capital wrote: Weather is not climate.

poly replies: Probably the climate at the equator isn't condusive to weather we call snow storms. Weather and climate are related. The climate doesn't seem condusive to rain  either. The largest lake in Africa, Lake Chad, is drying up. It's nearly gone.

Percipitation falls where cool air meets warmer air. As the atmosphere warms, it will hold more water before it releases it as pecipitation. The warmer the air, the more water it can hold before it's released as percipitation. Droughts alternated with floods are in the cards. The weather we call percipitation is a function of climate. Likewise tornados. They are a function of climate.

Understand the basics of how it works. It isn't that difficult.

Retired Monk - "Ideology is a disease"

Capital
Capital's picture
polycarp2 wrote: Understand

polycarp2 wrote:

Understand the basics of how it works. It isn't that difficult.

So condensending yet so wrong. 

You mean this Lake Chad:

According to the Global Resource Information Database of the United Nations Environment Programme, it shrank as much as 95% from about 1963 to 1998, but "the 2007 (satellite) image shows significant improvement over previous years"

Quote:
 Human population expansion and unsustainable human water extraction from Lake Chad have caused several natural species to be stressed and threatened from declining lake levels.

Seems completely UN-cimate related.

FYI:  Climate is the study of long term weather patterns.  As in a single year tornado anomaly does change the long term decline for Tornado activities. 

anonymous green
I would posit that it's the

I would posit that it's the Coriolis effect that's making the wind freak out.

It's bubbles of methane, rising to the surface from our core, that create earthquakes. Read The Deep Hot Biosphere, by Thomas Gold, the NASA scientist that also correctly predicted what the moon's surface would be like.

Gravity compacts our shifting crust, and with every earthquake, the planet gets smaller, to some degree, unfailingly. The rotational axis also changes, as we've seen in recent years. Is it any wonder the surface climate changes?

During periods of geologic crisis, like we have experienced for the last 350 years, methane is released in abundance, each molecule turning into CO2 within ten years. There is no way to stop this.

Climates change because of all these geologic factors, including the vaporization of water, and the wind, thanks to the Coriolis effect from an increasingly smaller planet, freaks out for a while.

You could just ignore it and keep buying carbon credits, since no one can change what's coming.

DRC
DRC's picture
Dude, you and very few people

Dude, you and very few people called scientists stand against a huge consensus of scientists who are not in corporate thrall.  I understand why some take the money.  I understand why there are always a few who think they know better than everyone else.  There might be some small issues that need correction, and there could be more to the consensus than will be proved to be the eventual conclusion.  But to say that you have science on your side is pretty damn amazing and not based on facts at all. 

I think we would all love to find out that this is normal change and nothing to worry about.  It is a very appealing alternative to believe in.  But, skepticism and doubt are essential to any actual honoring of truth.  The Right wants us to be afraid of all the wrong things while it whistles in the dark about war, greed and despoilation.  If you spend your worry energy on gay marriage and socialism, you don't have much left over for science.

anonymous green
Your Ivory Towers of Scilence

Your Ivory Towers of Scilence have been shills for Big Oil for so long, we all missed the glaring error in their ridiculous calculations.

There is no such thing as fossil fuel... The Fossil Fool Theory is a convenient lie. Hydrocarbons are abiogenic in origin, not the result of million year old Shrimp Gumbo. Read Thomas Gold's book, and your head will spin, once it receives some real science.

Had Big Oil told the truth, they would never have been able to say we were on the brink of running out of a natural, clean burning, self-replenishing renewable resource, i.e. methane, not to mention it's dirty cousins, oil and coal.

Now, instead of telling the truth about this, they're doubling down with this "it's our fault" reasoning.

What do you think has a greater force in our environment? The gasses released by every earthquake and volcano in the world, or all your Hummers?

Think again, outside the box they keep you in, after reading Gold's book.

 

Capital
Capital's picture
DRC wrote: Dude, you and very

DRC wrote:

Dude, you and very few people called scientists stand against a huge consensus of scientists who are not in corporate thrall.  I understand why some take the money. 

argumentum ad populum is not a winning argument.

You should only be interested in the Science the scientist opinion

polycarp2
Capitol wrote: You mean this

Capitol wrote: You mean this Lake Chad:

According to the Global Resource Information Database of the United Nations Environment Programme, it shrank as much as 95% from about 1963 to 1998, but "the 2007 (satellite) image shows significant improvement over previous years"

poly replies: Yep. That Lake Chad. From your link "The United Nations Environment Programme and the Lake Chad Basin Commission concur that at least half of the lake's decrease is attributable to shifting climate patterns.

Take a look at a 2011 report:

But it's been shrinking over the past 50 years and satellite images show it is now just a twentieth of its former size".

"Huge expanses of water are now nothing more than a series of ponds and islands, and the once-fertile land that surrounds the lake is now dusty and barren."

http://articles.cnn.com/2011-03-02/world/shrinking.lake.chad_1_lake-chad-lake-region-locals?_s=PM:WORLD

Regarding methane. Fissures in the earth do release it. So does the melting of the permafrost (from global warming) that methane gas is locked up in..The acceleration of the permafrost methane release in the Russian, U.S. and Canadian north is accelerating. It's a greater global waming gas than CO2. Effects of global warming will occur sooner than previous projections that the CO2 emissions alone indicated.Not including the methane release was an ovesight. It hadn't yet begun..

Weather patterns are a function of climate, Capital. It isn't the other way around. When climate changes, so do weather patterns.

If you want to put your capital to good self-serving use, do like the Big Boys. , Invest in firms that do well in times of famine and massive food shortages and in the repair of weather damage.to buildings and infrastructure, public and private. There is a once in a lifetime opportunity right around the corner.A sure thing if global warming can be kept on course.

Is there money to be made from global warming? You bet. Deniers, however, are pointing fingers at the wrong side of the debate..

Retired Monk - "Ideology is a disease"

 

anonymous green
If ideology is a disease,

If ideology is a disease, then dogma is a terminal illness.

Methane didn't 'just begin' to be released, and this is no 'oversight'. It's a coordinated web of ridiculous figures and charts, much like Roscoe Bartlett's famous "Hubbert's Curve' chart, all of it based on an archaic theory that makes no sense at all, the Fossil Fool Theory.

Sure, the climate is changing, but not for the reasons you've been told.

If it were true that we have, and have always had, a near unlimited source of cheap, clean, renewable energy that might help us all survive the changing climate (which indeed we do; methane), would you talk about it if you were making the largest profits in the history of the world off the lies you'd told to your customers to date? Or would you lie and stick to it, with all the power and 'science' your money could buy?

As it is, empircal evidence can only support the Empire.

We have Empire, sans Foundation.

 

Capital
Capital's picture
polycarp2 wrote: poly

polycarp2 wrote:

poly replies: Yep. That Lake Chad. From your link "The United Nations Environment Programme and the Lake Chad Basin Commission concur that at least half of the lake's decrease is attributable to shifting climate patterns.

Oh..   the science of "concuring"  Hard to argue agaisnt that.

One wonders why you didn't cite the one above  Coe & Foley 2001.

Quote:
"the Journal of Geophysical Research blamed the lake's retreat largely on overgrazing in the area surrounding the lake, causing desertification and a decline in vegetation."

 

polycarp2 wrote:

Weather patterns are a function of climate, Capital. It isn't the other way around. When climate changes, so do weather patterns

From your article "According to the U.S. Geological Survey, the lake has probably dried out about a half-dozen times in the last 1,000 years"

 

 

DRC
DRC's picture
Gee, Antarctica was also a

Gee, Antarctica was also a lush garden at one time.  The Great Southwest was a big lake or sea.  It does not make your case any less flimsy.

polycarp2
Capital wrote: polycarp2

Capital wrote:

polycarp2 wrote:

poly replies: Yep. That Lake Chad. From your link "The United Nations Environment Programme and the Lake Chad Basin Commission concur that at least half of the lake's decrease is attributable to shifting climate patterns.

Oh..   the science of "concuring"  Hard to argue agaisnt that.

One wonders why you didn't cite the one above  Coe & Foley 2001.

Quote:
"the Journal of Geophysical Research blamed the lake's retreat largely on overgrazing in the area surrounding the lake, causing desertification and a decline in vegetation."

 

polycarp2 wrote:

Weather patterns are a function of climate, Capital. It isn't the other way around. When climate changes, so do weather patterns

From your article "According to the U.S. Geological Survey, the lake has probably dried out about a half-dozen times in the last 1,000 years"

 

 

poly replies:Desertification is certainly another cause of global warming...but isn't primary. The warm Easterly Wind Belt expands  with the expanding Sahara. The desertification of the Sahel is another man-made cause. of global warming. It isn't something to use as a diversion from  primary causes. The U.N. report noted 1/2 of the shrinkage was from climate change. 1/2 from man-made desertification. Desertification and climate change are related...

It was rather simple to project greater tornado activity from  the expansion of the Sahara and the Easterly. Not much different than projecting unseasonal percipitation patterns from it. I did that many, many years ago. Both have been coming to pass. The science isn't that difficult. A middle school student could do it..

Desertification contributes to global warming and changing weather patterns, but isn't  the primary. cause of global warming.

Climate/weather is just another one of my many interests. It ties in with gardening and an overall interest in agriculture.. Like economics, I've been studying and observing it for decades. Cause/effect relationships are pretty predictable.

Retired Monk - "Ideology is a disease"

 

Capital
Capital's picture
DRC wrote: Gee, Antarctica

DRC wrote:

Gee, Antarctica was also a lush garden at one time.  The Great Southwest was a big lake or sea.  It does not make your case any less flimsy.

Which case would that be?

anonymous green
Chicken/eggs have a similar

Chicken/eggs have a similar predictability, but, given the fact that real climate science was classified by Bush, who among you can say which is the egg, and which is the bird?

You're all stabbing in the dark at things you have no idea about, but which you believe with all your 'hearts and minds'.

That is the box you are supposed to be in.

Why would the 'Illuminatti' reaveal their trickery to their audience? Of course, until you look behind the curtain, you'll be hypnotized by the talking head, the flames and the flashing lights.

We are experiencing world-wide devastating climate change, and all your towers are going to crumble.

Sadly, the last thing the powers that be want is for you to survive it. The more shock, awe and mystification of this process, the better, for them.

Once people realize the truth, the present power base will be long gone, as will your money, your home, your life and your dignity.

Until then, buy a few carbon credits and a hybrid electric car, (which really runs off gasoline).

The powers that be are busy 'saving our way of life', i.e. making sure they come out on top.

What's really ironic is that Obama, who is actually a good man trying to save you, the 'most powerful person in the world', is powerless to tell you the actual truth.

It's a matter of National Security. Homerland Security, to you.

Capital
Capital's picture
polycarp2 wrote:  poly

polycarp2 wrote:
 

poly replies:Desertification is certainly another cause of global warming...but isn't primary. The warm Easterly Wind Belt expands  with the expanding Sahara. The desertification of the Sahel is another man-made cause. of global warming. It isn't something to use as a diversion from  primary causes. The U.N. report noted 1/2 of the shrinkage was from climate change. 1/2 from man-made desertification. Desertification and climate change are related...

It was rather simple to project greater tornado activity from  the expansion of the Sahara and the Easterly. Not much different than projecting unseasonal percipitation patterns from it. I did that many, many years ago. Both have been coming to pass. The science isn't that difficult. A middle school student could do it..

Desertification contributes to global warming and changing weather patterns, but isn't  the primary. cause of global warming.

Climate/weather is just another one of my many interests. It ties in with gardening and an overall interest in agriculture.. Like economics, I've been studying and observing it for decades. Cause/effect relationships are pretty predictable.

You seem to be confusing Local or regional climate issues with Global Climate issues.   So while there may exist a link between regional weather patterns and desertification.  On the Issue of Lake Chad desertification is Directly associated with overgrazing and poor water management by the local population and not “climate Change” as the UN opined it.  So for the mean time,  I’ll stick with scientific finding over opinion.  Unless you can find a conflicting paper on the subject. 

polycarp2
Actually, you seem to be the

Actually, you seem to be the one who is confused. The global Easterly Wind Belt determines in part just where seasonal percipitation will fall. . Where it strikes cooler air is where the percipitation is released. It has widened and is  changing seasonal patterns. The percipitation, of course is regional...with  global causes.

That particular effect  on weather from turning the Sahel into a blast furnace is also another cause of global warming...and isn't the primary one. The heat is retained in the atmosphere rather than being absorbed as plant energy. The cooling effect from plant transpiration disappears. The retained heat  rings the planet with the Easterly.. The plants are gone. In turn, that feeds the expansion of desertification with or without continued overgrazing.

The only nation that has had any success in combating desertification is Senegal, and that success has been limited..

As stated before, any middle school student can see the cause/effect relationships. Effects are predictive. The science isn't all that difficult. All they need is the data and then observation.to watch it unfold. The effects are pretty easy to figure out.

Even the dumb dumb in the White House could see rapidly unfolding effects of global warming if he had the brains to look. It would scare the hell out of him...or push him into investing in disaster industries if he didn't care to urgently address it..There are fortunes to be made at the cost of widespread misery and hunger.

Carbon credits are stupid. Just more financial paper to speculate with that address nothing in an effective manner.. It's just another area of fortune building at everyone else's expense.

Retired Monk - "Ideology is a disease"

.

Capital
Capital's picture
polycarp2 wrote: Actually,

polycarp2 wrote:

Actually, you seem to be the one who is confused. The global Easterly Wind Belt determines in part just where seasonal percipitation will fall. . Where it strikes cooler air is where the percipitation is released. It has widened and is  changing seasonal patterns. The percipitation, of course is regional...with  global causes.

Did you bother to look that up BEFORE you wrote it? 

There are two strong air masses which greatly influence the climate of the Lake Chad region. There is a dry continental air mass and a humid, maritime air mass which oftentimes collide creating unexpected weather patterns. Precipitation usually occurs when a great depth of humid air mass gathers in the Chad basin. In general, the depth of the air mass varies greatly from day to day and year to year causing fairly unpredictable weather conditions altogether.

I assume you can see the key word there "regional"
Is Easterly Wind Belt even a Climate word? Even as noted before, the Lake has dried up before so there needs to be a distint Human AGW signal in order for it to Global Warming.

Quote:
The only nation that has had any success in combating desertification is Senegal, and that success has been limited..

I think Israel has them beat.

Quote:
As stated before, any middle school student can see the cause/effect relationships. Effects are predictive. The science isn't all that difficult. All they need is the data and then observation.to watch it unfold. The effects are pretty easy to figure out.

Those are some pretty smart Middle Scholars, Perhaps they should go work for the IPCC. I'd prefer a single scientific study to look at. Because the one I did look at, Said the cause was over grazing, poor water management and regional circular weather patterns

polycarp2
What you are lookng for is a

What you are lookng for is a study that will give you conclusions. A better approach would be to understand how regional weather systems, work as a function, of climate  Then you'd know which studies were accurate, and which were just baloney. . You could watch patterns from global warming unfold and even have successes in prediction..

There is no doubt overgrazing of the Sahel has altered regional weather in the Sahel. Less plants means, less absorbtion of the sun's heat as energy to grow the plants. The increased atmospheric heat lowers percipitation. Studies on plant heat absorbtion were made many, many, any decades ago by a Danish scientiest.(I've forgottten the name, and retain the results of the study).

Transpiration of moisture from plants increases mositure in the atmosphere. The cooling effect of transpiration , evaporation of water from plants, is diminished when there are less of them.. Sun energy will evaporate water (a cooling effect) to its maximum before heating an object.. That's the principle of a swamp cooler.At this point, the desertification of the Sahel from overgrazing is self-feeding, self-expanding..

The Sahel (the width of the African Continent)  is directly beneath the Easterly Wind Belt. Effects of warming there have global implications, not just regional implications.. The warmer and wider wind built (an altering of climate) circles the globe...affecting regional weather systems globally.

Weather is a function of climate. It isn't the other way around. Alter the climate, and you alter the weather.

Desertification of the Sahel adds to global warming. It isn't, however, the primary cause. Burning of the huge Brazilian rainforest contributes to global warming. just as desertification of the vast Sahel does . It  isn't the primary cause either.

The primary cause  is the retention of heat from gases in the atmosphere  that slow the loss of solar heat back into space  It just builds up. Incoming heat and outgoing heat are out of balance.

 If we aren't going to attempt to address it, we should probably at least address the coming consequences with such things as localized agriculture instead of putting all of our agricultural eggs in one or two at-risk baskets. Protection of low-lying coastal cities with levees..or moving them inland may be another. Increasing water storage capacity and better flood control would be yet another. One effect on regional weather systems is drought alternating with floods.

.Retired Monk - "Ideology is a disease"..