The Recession Will Become a Depression

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DynoDon

In case everybody was feeling good, here's a comment from Dr. Doom.

"Nouriel Roubini : "It's not just a slowdown...The recession will become a depression. Output has fallen from the peak 15% in Greece. The same thing in Spain...This could become like Japan, but worse. Japan did not have a sovereign debt crisis because it was a net creditor country. But all of these countries are net debtors. They would be lucky to end up in stagnation like Japan. It's getting worse, there's already a sovereign debt crisis, a banking crisis, a balance of payment crisis, an economic crisis and all of those things together are getting worse.""

http://nourielroubini.blogspot.com/2012/06/roubini-recession-will-become-depression.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed:+NourielRoubiniBlog+(Nouriel+Roubini+Blog)&utm_content=Yahoo!+Mail

Comments

anonymous green
The spies are falling! The

The spies are falling! The spies are falling!!

Wolf!!!!

al3
al3's picture
The way I see it, I believe

The way I see it, I believe we're in for trouble if there continues to be a bi-modal economic model of producers and consumers.  The consumers, mainly mature Western economies, are pooped out, in debt, and will no longer provide the consumption to power the global economy.  Everyone's waiting on the edge of their seats for the Western consumer to return in masse, so they can export and lend to them again, but it's doubtful that burnt out engine, despite many, many fruitless government kick-starts, will re-occur again. 

Meanwhile the "middle class" in export oriented, cash rich economies of Asia and Petro-states, will need to loosen up, open their wallets and start spending like the carefree consumers in the West, or we're screwed.  Problem is, most of these countries don't have the free people Western countries have, have wealth concentrations at the top worse than the U.S., and have a tradition of savings.

I'm not going to hold my breath for any recovery any time soon.

delete jan in iowa
This could all get better

This could all get better faster if the "do nothing congress" would get off their butts and pass a jobs program and rebuild our infrastructure.

Austerity isn't working here or in Europe.  Doesn't history teach us that people have to get back to work to get the economy going again?

anonymous green
They teach us the history

They teach us the history designed to make us misunderstand history, and make the same mistakes, from birth.

Phaedrus76
Phaedrus76's picture
al3 wrote: The way I see it,

al3 wrote:

The way I see it, I believe we're in for trouble if there continues to be a bi-modal economic model of producers and consumers.  The consumers, mainly mature Western economies, are pooped out, in debt, and will no longer provide the consumption to power the global economy.  Everyone's waiting on the edge of their seats for the Western consumer to return in masse, so they can export and lend to them again, but it's doubtful that burnt out engine, despite many, many fruitless government kick-starts, will re-occur again. 

Meanwhile the "middle class" in export oriented, cash rich economies of Asia and Petro-states, will need to loosen up, open their wallets and start spending like the carefree consumers in the West, or we're screwed.  Problem is, most of these countries don't have the free people Western countries have, have wealth concentrations at the top worse than the U.S., and have a tradition of savings.

I'm not going to hold my breath for any recovery any time soon.

All correct, which is why we need tariffs, coupled with stimulus spending here, and across the EU, to encourage job growth in Western Democracies, while at the same time encouragin democratic reforms in the third wolrd, including labor laws, to make work pay.

Karolina
Karolina's picture
The whole plan of the Euro

The whole plan of the Euro has been just this—through having one currency for all countries that agree to it (notice Britain did not) these countries would be able to be forced to give up their sovereignty.

Ain't fascism grand? The good guys seem to forget all history, but the fascists actually learn and improve their tactics from history.

delete jan in iowa
Karolina wrote: Ain't fascism

Karolina wrote:

Ain't fascism grand? The good guys seem to forget all history, but the fascists actually learn and improve their tactics from history.

That's why what we've both been saying is true ...... the corporate structure needs to be changed (my words here).  

Which means we have to make it possible for workers to start their own enterprises, create cooperatives and employee owned workplaces, to  give employees another work model to chose from.  

If the corporate structure is not changed and only regulations put in place, we will be back in this same spot in a shorter time than when Roosevelt beat back the corporations in the 1930-40's.

Karolina
Karolina's picture
We're not going to be able to

We're not going to be able to do anything until we put bank regulations in first. The repeal of Glass-Steagall was done to take away our sovereignty too.

I just read this:

Quote:
At this moment, the principal national governments and related leading financial institutions of the trans-Atlantic world, most notably the United States, the United Kingdom, and France, are each expressing an immediate need for rescuing what they proclaim as the unpayable debts of the nations and leading, and hopelessly bankrupt present private banking and related financial systems of their respective nations, and yet refuse to tolerate the only means by which those nations will not disintegrate almost immediately, without a U.S.A. initiative for the immediate fulfillment of a Glass-Steagall rescue of the financial systems of the relevant regions of the planet.

Yet the same financial and governmental institutions, who have no ability to rescue the financial systems of their respective nations and related key private institutions, are demanding actions which would detonate the principal financial and governmental institutions of their respective areas of the planet, and prohibiting the only actions which could prevent a virtually immediate chain-reaction collapse of the principal nations of the trans-Atlantic region of the world.

The only certainty in such behavior by those governments and related institutions of this trans-Atlantic region, is that the relevant institutions must be collectively insane, or that a monstrous lie is behind the mass-murderous lunacy which the current "bail-out" schemes define.

The residue of the population are intended to be the victims of a scheme of mass murder far beyond that charged against the defeated Nazi regime.

Or else the relevant parties are simply clinically insane, and must be removed immediately from power on that account.

— Lyndon H. LaRouche, Jr.

A fun read.

Dr. Econ
Dr. Econ's picture
  I can't tell if you are

 

I can't tell if you are joking.

pshakkottai
pshakkottai's picture
  Another reason might be a

 

Another reason might be a better government with "socialism" and "fraternity"added and "pursuit of happiness" deleted in the case of India.

WE, THE PEOPLE OF INDIA, having solemnly resolved to constitute India into a SOVEREIGN SOCIALIST SECULAR DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC and to secure to all its citizens:

 

JUSTICE, social, economic and political;

 

LIBERTY of thought, expression, belief, faith and worship;

 

EQUALITY of status and of opportunity;

 

and to promote among them all

 

FRATERNITY assuring the dignity of the individual and the unity and integrity of the Nation;

 

IN OUR CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY this twenty-sixth day of November, 1949, do HEREBY ADOPT, ENACT AND GIVE TO OURSELVES THIS CONSTITUTION.

http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Preamble_to_Constitution_of_India.pdf&page=1

India supports the commons well, low taxes to the agriculture sector, free university education, rural employment for infrastructure development, funding for science and technology development etc. Its banking is mostly govt owned and operated by civil servants and the plutocracy is kept away. The treasury and fed are combined into a central bank and money creation is not resrtricted by "debt limits". It offers T bills for sale but is not required to do so. It is left to the banking department.

There are more parties. In general, coalitions govern better than a two party bought-and- paid- for govt. The idea "govt is your enemy" will never fly in India.

The wealth inequality in India is similar to that of Canada and Australia. Of course India is much poorer than western democracies but is doing the right things for the future of the country.