Global Warming - How It Feeds It's Own Acceleration

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This short excerpt explains much if it pretty well:

QUOTE: The consequences of climate change on rising sea levels, acidification in the ocean, increasing desertification, and the loss of fresh water have been amply discussed. Much of the time, these effects are discussed as if climate change moves in a steady, linear fashion. Most of nature, however, reacts in a non-linear fashion, largely because of positive feedback. For example, higher global temperatures mean that more tundra permafrost melts, which releases more CO2 and methane.

In turn, those higher greenhouse gas levels further increase temperatures, and that melts even more permafrost. Or, rising temperatures melt ice. Because ice reflects heat whereas darker surfaces, like blue water, hold heat, melting ice raises temperatures and that melts more ice. The key is that not only do temperatures rise, they do so at an accelerating, or non-linear rate. This has been quantified in measuring loss of glaciers, with the glacial decline accelerating over the last few decades.

Furthermore, there is about a 30-year lag between greenhouse-gas emissions and the effects that we see today. Although we presently have CO2 levels of 395.7 ppm, the physical evidence we currently see comes from greenhouse gases around 1980, when levels were about 330 ppm. That makes the belief that we can easily reverse climate change through technology change a fallacy.

http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/08/03/the-politics-of-climate-change/

If all emissions were stopped tomorrow, we'd still be living with increasing effects begun decades ago. The tipping point to at least stabilize it and prevent further acceleration is about 3 years away. At that point, it will become an unstopable run-a-way train.

In the meantime, nothing, absolutely nothing is being addresses in a serious way to stop it.

Retired Monk - "Ideology is a disease"

polycarp2
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Comments

Dr. Brian Miller is the director of the Wind River Ranch in New Mexico which seems to study and reestablish keystone species. He received his Ph.D. from the U of Wyoming studying black footed ferrets.

Enough said

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Capital1
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Quote polycarp2:

Furthermore, there is about a 30-year lag between greenhouse-gas emissions and the effects that we see today. Although we presently have CO2 levels of 395.7 ppm, the physical evidence we currently see comes from greenhouse gases around 1980, when levels were about 330 ppm.

Brilliant, Linda, but you must be living in an alternate Universe, the laws of which are dictated by your fancy.

Since CO2 is heavier than air, and is washed out of the air by the rain, how is it that the 1980 gases survived?

If it's methane you are talking about, that only survives for about ten years before oxidizing into CO2.

So, what gases from 1980 are pretending still exist today?

anonymous green
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Jan. 5, 2012 11:47 am

His degree is in Behavioral Ecology. Ecology includes the inter-relatedness of systems and species, and how they effect behavior,of species, doesn't it? That includes climate.

What he does is capsulate the findings in global warming in a really simple to understand form. The mechanism becomes self-feeding and self-accelerating.

Even an elementary school kids knows that white (such as ice) reflects heat.

Most could understand that when permafrost melts and releases warming gases into the atmosphere, it becomes a self-feeding cycle. Gases increase the warming which increases the melting of permafrost which increases the release of warming gases which increases the melting permafrost, etc, etc., etc.

Retired Monk - "Ideology is a disease"

polycarp2
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Co2 is slightly heavier than air. It is "diffused" with air and co mixes with the currents. Co2 is constantly circulating up and down and all around in the atmosphere. Eventually it comes down but as it's being produced more and more of it co mingles with all of the gases in our atmosphere. A feather is heavier than air but it can rise up to the skies among wind currents. If not, then we would all be walking around in a layer of Co2 and the nitrogen and oxygen would all be in specific layers.

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Bush_Wacker
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Quote polycarp2:

His degree is in Behavioral Ecology. Ecology includes the inter-relatedness of systems and species, and how they effect behavior,doesn't it? That includes climate.

you can spin it any way you like. However, He doesn't get to lie about science for his Propaganda piece.

It's not 30 years. It's 37.5, commonly referred to as 40 years. As per Jim Hansen 2005 paper ”Earth’s Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications”

If you claim to have science on your side, You don't have to lie about it.

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Capital1
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"The ability of certain trace gases to be relatively transparent to incoming visible light from the sun, yet opaque to the energy radiated from the earth is one of the best understood processes in the atmospheric sciences. This phenomenon, the greenhouse effect, is what makes the earth habitable for life"

Most atmospheric gases are neutral as far as the sun is concerned

However, Increase the insulating "greenhouse" gases, and you increase the temperature of the planet.

"Carbon dioxide () is one of the greenhouse gases. It consists of one carbon atom with an oxygen atom bonded to each side. When its atoms are bonded tightly together, the carbon dioxide molecule can absorb infrared radiation and the molecule starts to vibrate. Eventually, the vibrating molecule will emit the radiation again, and it will likely be absorbed by yet another greenhouse gas molecule. This absorption-emission-absorption cycle serves to keep the heat near the surface, effectively insulating the surface from the cold of space"

."Carbon dioxide, water vapor (), methane (), nitorus oxide (), and a few other gases are greenhouse gases. They all are molecules composed of more than two component atoms, bound loosely enough together to be able to vibrate with the absorption of heat."

The melting of permafrost and release of methane increases the rate of insulating gases being released into the atmosphere. The mechanism is self-accelerating.

As for the melting ice connection Capital doesn't seem to get....

"Sunlight falling on a white glacier surface strongly reflects back into space, resulting in minimal heating of the surface and lower atmosphere. Sunlight falling on a dark desert soil is strongly absorbed, on the other hand, and contributes to significant heating of the surface and lower atmosphere"

Again, it's a self-feeding mechanism. The more the ice melts, the less the heat radiated back into space....and the warmer it gets. The ice melts at a quickening pace...accelerating the pace of global warming..

http://www.ucar.edu/learn/1_3_1.htm

The mechanisms become self-feeding at an accelerating pace.

.Retired Monk - "Ideology is a disease"

polycarp2
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Quote polycarp2:

As for the melting ice connection Capital doesn't seem to get

Bold words..

Again, it's a self-feeding mechanism. The more the ice melts, the less the heat radiated back into space....and the warmer it gets. The ice melts at a quickening pace...accelerating the pace of global warming..

And like most Global warmist.... your depth of knowledge is limited. For the process continues " and the warmer it gets" The greater the evaporation, the Greater the evaporation the, The greater the cloud albedo. Clouds are white, thereby reflecting energy back into space. Water Vapor makes up 95% of the GHG effect in the atmosphere. Co2 only 3.6%. Out of that 3.6%. ONLY .117% is considered Man Made.

While Methane is problematic, BUT It only accounts for .36% of the Greenhouse effect.

So what is the MAIN complaint of skeptics against AGW believers. they are making wild claims with incomplete understanding of the Global biosphere. And quite frankly too quick to believe what headlines tell you. Especially about Methane. Without looking at what the actual scientist is saying.

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Capital1
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Has anyone checked the USGS charts for volcano and earthquake activity over the last 4,000 years?

I thought not.

I'd suggest you ask yourselves why, in the last 350 years, the 4,000 yr. flat line suddlenly curves ever increasingly upward.

The climate is a symptom of the geologic crisis occurring on Earth in our lifetime.

No matter how many years you type, like with the Kennedy assassinations, the truth will elude you.

True science is classified in this regard, so you don't become a pack of murderous monsters stealing each other's water and food and willing to kill for them.

Ask Edgar Cayce, when he wakes up, again.

Or sleep with your head on The Deep Hot Biosphere, since reading and understanding it eludes you all as well.

anonymous green
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Jan. 5, 2012 11:47 am

Capital wrote: " and the warmer it gets" The greater the evaporation, the Greater the evaporation the, The greater the cloud albedo. Clouds are white, thereby reflecting energy back into space

poly replies: And, of course, the higher the temperature, the more moisture the atmophere can retain before the mosture condenses into clouds. . Your albedo effect to counter-act global warming is a pipe dream. Learn how things work.

Lots of humidity in Missouri right now....just too hot for cloud formation and percipitation. What i have is a dead lawn full of cracked, baked ground...like a dry lake bed. Ditto half of this town. The water supply isn't sufficient to irrigate them. It's undermining home foundations all over the state. I suppose foundation repair men will do well.

Missouri borders the nation's largest river followed closely by the Missouri River. They have lots of water, It surprises me that many cities don't. However, with low infrastructure spending from such a wacky trickle-down state that shouldn't surprise me.

Unlike Calif. that built pipelines to channel water to it's major cities from the distant north many years ago, Missouri can't even build one 50 miles long. I guess the poor and middle class in Missouri can't afford to pay for state to construct the pipelines.Taxing those who can afford it is a no no.

Retired Monk - "Ideology is a disease"

polycarp2
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Quote polycarp2:

poly replies: And, of course, the higher the temperature, the more moisture the atmophere can retain before the mosture condenses into clouds. . Your albedo effect to counter-act global warming is a pipe dream. Learn how things work.

Of course Poly, Back at you.

I'm talking the Natural effects of cloud formations. However cloud seeding is currently used all over the world for regional concerns.

Have you ever wonder why EVERY climate projection from modeling has been grossly wrong over the last 20 years? no... huh.

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Capital1
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Well, you don't seem to have a clue how cloud formations form. It's a relationship between atmospheric temperatures and atmospheric humidity.

There is a lag time between an increase of greenhouse gases and their effects. The time frame has been off...not the overall trend. and the rate of global warming is accelerating, not decreasing. Ice sheets are shrinking...not growing. That becomes a self-feeding dynamic.

Global warming effects of severe drought followed by severe flooding are becoming more commonplace. That is an effect predicted by models. Just where those events will occur isn't yet fully clear though models are close.. It's a developing dynamic....new regional patterns aren't fully set. They are in process.

Once they are set, the data for modeling will be more accurate.

Modeling predicted temperature increases higher in the far northern latitudes.That's come to pass. What they didn't inject into the models, was the release of methane from melting permafrost. That data is now added to the models, isn't it.?

As desertification, blowing up mountaintops and chopping down of forests accelerates, that too will have to be a data input for more accurate modeling. Those areas will retain more heat.

Science is playing catch-up...from oversights The oversights offer more dire predictions...not better ones.

i have to go pay my slumlord his due. Maybe I can get him to fix the toilet so it flushes without a plunger. Not likely, but who knows?

Cheap rents here. Maybe if infrastructure costs and taxes were more fairly distributed, people in this state could afford to pay enough rent that landlords could maintain their properties. When incomes are low, so are rents if a landord wants to fill his vacancy. They are below the true costs of maintaining/renting a building. It isn't likely that will change. Upper classes are pretty well entrenched in the state legislature. It's trickle down all the way.

i actually feel sorry for my slumlord.

Be back later.

.Retired monk - "Ideology is a disease"

polycarp2
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Quote Capital1:I'm talking the Natural effects of cloud formations. However cloud seeding is currently used all over the world for regional concerns.

Cloud seeding? You must be joking!

Video

Bonus Video

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ABCee
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Quote polycarp2:

Well, you don't seem to have a clue how cloud formations form. It's a relationship between atmospheric temperatures and atmospheric humidity.

Aren't you just adorable...

There is a lag time between an increase of greenhouse gases and their effects. The time frame has been off...not the overall trend. and the rate of global warming is accelerating, not decreasing. Ice sheets are shrinking...not growing. That becomes a self-feeding dynamic

See, you don't even have your science correct. Ice sheets are shrinking in the NORTHERN Hemisphere, Growing in the SOUTHERN Hemisphere. Antarctic ice extent is +.728 this year and has never declined since measurements began.

Global warming effects of severe drought followed by severe flooding are becoming more commonplace. That is an effect predicted by models. Just where those events will occur isn't yet fully clear though models are close.. It's a developing dynamic....new regional patterns aren't fully set. They are in process

And yet science itself tells you that this drought is no where near the droughts of the Past. Even the recent past of the 1930's an the 1950's. But somehow, THIS drought is different and notable.

Climate is never a static thing, However in the context of known history... There is nothing significant or alarming about this drought...... yet. (because it isn't over yet). Might even rival 1934.

Needless to say... while your rhetoric is impressive... this is a matter of science. If you wish to talk science by all means. But I read enough alarmist headlines in the newspapers.

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Capital1
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Quote ABCee:
Quote Capital1:I'm talking the Natural effects of cloud formations. However cloud seeding is currently used all over the world for regional concerns.

Cloud seeding? You must be joking!

Video

Bonus Video

O shit.... How did I not know that would draw you out.

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Capital1
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Jul. 31, 2012 7:38 am

As it should be - anybody who is in denial of the radical, extreme weather modification operations that have been in effect for over a decade now...

How interesting that the "drought" became noteworthy during the same time period that people began reporting unusual trails in the sky overhead...

Aw come on...one more bonus video!

Bonus Video

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ABCee
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Capital wrote:

See, you don't even have your science correct. Ice sheets are shrinking in the NORTHERN Hemisphere, Growing in the SOUTHERN Hemisphere. Antarctic ice extent is +.728 this year and has never declined since measurements began.

poly replies: And models provided for the most pronounced warming in northern latitudes, didn't they? Areas where the tundra is retreating, permafrost melting, and ice sheets melting. Not so much at the south pole. So, the science is correct, isn't it?

Australia's decade long drought in areas that usually have just adequate rainfall isn't an anomaly. Just enough of a temp increase to keep the atmospheric moisture from forming rainclouds.

Finally, there was enough moisture built up to form clouds/percipitation....after 13 years....followed by flooding..

Drought followed by floods rather than normal rainfall is part of the model, isn't it?

Ditto are fewer rainstorms over many areas...and more severe rainstorms when they occur. It's the model.

Atmospheric moisture is reaching the condensation point further and further north in our own hemisphere, or haven't you noticed.? Perciptation is being pushed northward at the upper fringe edges of the easterly where it collides with the westerly, and at the Atlantic where the hot, expanded moisture laden easterly hits cooler air that brings about condensation and rain . Warmer air collides with the cooler westerly at higher latitudes. Alaska and Canada should both see increases in rainfall...measurable over time (say every 5 years or so) as a trend.That eliminates the blips of anamolies.

Probably, hurricane pattens common to the south will expand to include more northerly areas. The common range being an additional 5 degrees north. I haven't seen a model on that yet, and would find it interesting.

As explained elsewhere, I've been watching this process take place for twenty years beginning with a study of the desertification of the Sahel. The work of Dr. Niels Bohr on plant absorption of heat energy (or lack of cover to absorb it) confirmed my own conclusions from the study. it can be transposed globally. Plant absorption/non-absorption heat energy effects don't change with location.

Desertification itself becomes a self-feeding dynamic without an intervention to stop it.

Retired Monk - "Ideology is a disease:

polycarp2
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Jul. 31, 2007 4:01 pm
Quote ABCee:

As it should be - anybody who is in denial of the radical, extreme weather modification operations that have been in effect for over a decade now...

How interesting that the "drought" became noteworthy during the same time period that people began reporting unusual trails in the sky overhead...

First, Not that interesting in that the drought is just a politcal tool to forward an agenda

Who says I am in denial, while I don't really like people engaging in Geo engineering, there have been some positive regional results.

The only thing that interest me about Chemtrails, is the effect it had in US temperatures when all US flights were grounded after 9/11.

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Capital1
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Quote polycarp2:

poly replies: And models provided for the most pronounced warming in northern latitudes, didn't they? Areas where the tundra is retreating, permafrost melting, and ice sheets melting. Not so much at the south pole.

No model projection has ever prove remotely accruate. Not sure where your going with that...

Australia's decade long drought in areas that usually have just adequate rainfall isn't an anomaly. Just enough of a temp increase to keep the atmospheric moisture from forming rainclouds.

Huh.. interesting

Specifically, droughts have decreased last century in line with increasing rainfall, but the climate models used in the DECR showed the opposite (and significantly so).

Finally, there was enough moisture built up to form clouds/percipitation....after 13 years....followed by flooding..

Drought followed by floods rather than normal rainfall is part of the model, isn't it?

wow... just wow...

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Capital1
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Jul. 31, 2012 7:38 am

Perhaps what you should do is look at the original data.

http://www.daff.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/721285/csiro-bom-report-future-droughts.pdf

Even a 13 year drought is way, way outside of that arid Continent's norm.

Was Australia's drought followed by flooding rather than a return to normal rainfall patterns? Yep.

Exactly as global models predict. Stockwell doesn't seem to get that you can't have an accurate regional model if the global model is left out of the equations for it.

Perhaps that's why he's at the scientific fringe among his peers.

Retired Monk - "Ideology is a disease"

polycarp2
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Quote polycarp2:

Perhaps what you should do is look at the original data.

http://www.daff.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/721285/csiro-bom-repo...

Will that change the information I posted? Especially where obervational data doesn't match thier model data.. Thereby making the entire report you just posted a glactic waste of time. Not even peer-reviewed.

Even a 13 year drought is way, way outside of that arid Continent's norm.

is it? Drought in Australia a natural phenomenon

Perhaps that's why he's at the scientific fringe among his peers.

Somehow I doubt you know anything about him

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Capital1
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Quote polycarp2:Lots of humidity in Missouri right now....just too hot for cloud formation and percipitation.
Yet, when you posted there was significant cloud cover and some rain in MO. (and the humidity was about 50%)

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/missouri/weather-radar-24hr

Seeing as the last time MO had weather like this was in the 80s, then before that the 1960s, 1950s, 1930s, 1920s and 1900s, how is it so clear that this time its clearly a signal of the warming caused by Co2 levels (from the 1980s). A harbinger I could understand- but proof ? all those others were natural weather variation- but not this time- this time it proves we are on the precipice of an irreversible tipping point hurlting us towards destruction. As good as your demonstrated understanding of climate function is, your posts consistently dimiss the context that is clear in the historical record.

Current weather extremes can be claimed to be consistent with that predicted by IPCC report- but they also fall within historical observations. That tells me that the jury is still out and that its wise to keep watching closely but unwise to make wholesale changes in public policy that can't be shown to be able to have a detectable affect on the future climate.

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stwo
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stwo wrote: As good as your demonstrated understanding of climate function is, your posts consistently dimiss the context that is clear in the historical record

poly replies: Actually, they are consistent with the historical record.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/

As weather patterns shift with warming air, there will be increased rainfall from the increased moisture in the atmosphere...until the heat exceeds the condensation point. Stockwell doesn't seem to understand that's what occurred in Australia...as is now occurring in many parts of the U.S.

In our own hempisphere, that is shifting north. It has been for some time. it's a slow process that is accelerating.

Remember the floods in the Dakota's that have become near-annual events? In a few more years, they'll get some relief from that and go back to near-normal river flows.

I've been studying weather globally for twenty years..... meteorologists about four...then they head to a TV news room. The best way to garner an understanding is from Phd. researchers, not your local weather man.

Put the research together and become your own "weather man". You'll be more accurate.

Retired Monk - "Ideology is a disease"

polycarp2
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GOP Blocks Equal Pay...again.

Just in time for election season, Senate Republicans blocked legislation aimed at closing the gender pay gap. For the third time since 2012, Republicans refused to allow debate on the Paycheck Fairness Act, and reminded women that the GOP doesn't believe in equal pay for equal work.

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