Rising Oceans......how much? How soon?

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NASA just released an article about that question and I thought I would share it with you.


I just hope the link works.

MrsBJLee's picture
Feb. 17, 2012 8:45 am


WTF? 3 feet? Hansen said 20!

Dr. Econ's picture
Dr. Econ
Jul. 31, 2007 3:01 pm

Hansen's analysis is different from NASA's relying more on historical data. NASA's is using computer models of current levels of glacier ice melting, as well as ocean warming causing it to swell and changes in mass of ice causing changes in continent levels. So it is complicated and Hansen's analysis is based on a calculated non-linear acceleration in glacier melting.

"...There is evidence of ice melt, sea level rise to +5–9 m, and extreme storms in the prior interglacial period that was less than 1 °C warmer than today. Human-made climate forcing is stronger and more rapid than paleo forcings, but much can be learned by combining insights from paleoclimate, climate modeling, and on-going observations. We argue that ice sheets in contact with the ocean are vulnerable to non-linear disintegration in response to ocean warming, and we posit that ice sheet mass loss can be approximated by a doubling time up to sea level rise of at least several meters. Doubling times of 10, 20 or 40 years yield sea level rise of several meters in 50, 100 or 200 years. Paleoclimate data reveal that subsurface ocean warming causes ice shelf melt and ice sheet discharge. Our climate model exposes amplifying feedbacks in the Southern Ocean that slow Antarctic bottom water formation and increase ocean temperature near ice shelf grounding lines, while cooling the surface ocean and increasing sea ice cover and water column stability. Ocean surface cooling, in the North Atlantic as well as the Southern Ocean, increases tropospheric horizontal temperature gradients, eddy kinetic energy and baroclinicity, which drive more powerful storms. We focus attention on the Southern Ocean's role in affecting atmospheric CO2 amount, which in turn is a tight control knob on global climate. ..."

Also note that the NASA anlaysis shows large variations in sea level rise for different regions, the East coast of America particularly vulnerable to rapid sea level rise.

"..."Given what we know now about how the ocean expands as it warms and how ice sheets and glaciers are adding water to the seas, it's pretty certain we are locked into at least 3 feet [0.9 meter] of sea level rise, and probably more," said Steve Nerem of the University of Colorado, Boulder, and lead of the Sea Level Change Team. "But we don't know whether it will happen within a century or somewhat longer"

According to Nerem, new research available since this report suggests the higher end of that range is more likely, and the question remains how that range might shift upward...."

Greenpeace is renowned for claiming the Greenland ice sheet would be gone by 2030, resulting in a 20 ft sea level rise by 2030 - so goodbye Miami & New York city.

"..."A lot of the major uncertainty in future sea level rise is in the Greenland Ice Sheet," said OMG principal investigator Josh Willis, a scientist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California. At about 660,000 square miles (1.7 million square kilometers), the ice sheet is three times the size of Texas. It's about a mile deep on average and contains enough water to raise global sea levels about 20 feet (6 meters), if it were all to melt. "The question is how fast it's melting," Willis said...."

With warm sea water powering larger & more fierce storms, with higher sea levels, it will become a loosing battle to save coastal cities where much of the world's population recides.

Huge Land loss, massive destruction of coastal cities, mass migrations of billions of people, a whole lot cheaper to just replace fossil fuels with nuclear power and save the next generation from the agony created by the unrelenting greed and corruption of our government, institutions, media and pseudo-enviromental groups. Nuclear power is in actual fact cheaper than fossil fuels anyway so we would save the environment and reduce the cost of energy at the same time. No wonder all the fossil fuel lackeys line up in droves attacking Nuclear power. Unwilling to give up the 100's of $trillions in fossil fuel revenue they have dug their greedy claws into. They will kill to protect that.

Jun. 17, 2015 11:41 am

I might further add that there are great complications with any analysis of the long term effects of global warming & GHG emissions on seal level rise. NASA & the IPCC have chosen to use a simplified linear model which avoids the difficulities of positive feedback loops. Hansen and associates avoided that analysis altogether by instead looking at the geological record of sea level rise during similar periods of rising CO2 and global temperature increases. And they discovered clear evidence that these positive feedback loops were very significant and could translate in a 10 ft sea level rise in as little as 50 yrs. And that could be even higher in some areas like the Eastern US coast and Gulf of Mexico.

Some positive feedback loops are:

1) warmer temperatures cause sea ice to melt, more open water absorbs more sunlight and causes more rapid sea ice loss.

2) warmer temperatures cause permafrost in the Arctic & Subarctic tundra to melt releasing large amounts of methane a powerful greenhouse gas which in turn accelerates temperature rise

3) warmer seas cause methane hydrates to sublimate releasing methane into the atmosphere

4) warm sea water and meltwater from glaciers lubricate glacier ice flow causing large sections of Greenland and Antarctice ice sheet collapse

5) large amounts of cold fresh meltwater from Greenland and Antartica disrupt normal ocean currents

6) ocean acidification effects

Jun. 17, 2015 11:41 am

3 inches since 1992? my mid-west property will be beach front before I know it, lovely idea, oh except for the dramatic species extinction and human migration desperate for fresh water situation, fck armageddon. I thought it was gonna be a par-TAY...........with much depressive fecetiousness, poopy butts, we're gonna die

mrs.vonderhoffholz's picture
Aug. 3, 2015 6:12 pm
Quote mrs.vonderhoffholz:

3 inches since 1992? my mid-west property will be beach front before I know it, lovely idea, oh except for the dramatic species extinction and human migration desperate for fresh water situation, fck armageddon. I thought it was gonna be a par-TAY...........with much depressive fecetiousness, poopy butts, we're gonna die

Not so good at math, are ya?

stwo's picture
Jul. 31, 2007 3:01 pm

"The Saddest Thing Is This Won't Be Breaking News"

Thom plus logo As the world burns, and more and more fossil fuels are being used every day planet-wide, atmospheric carbon dioxide levels passed 416 ppm this week at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii. In the 300,000 years since the emergence of modern humans, carbon dioxide levels have never been this high.
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