"Renaissance Thinking About the Issues of Our Day"
"The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little."
Second Inaugural Address of Franklin D. Roosevelt, 20 January 1937.
For nearly three decades, many conservatives and libertarians have argued that reducing federal tax rates, in addition to increasing long-term economic growth, would reduce the growth of federal spending by “starving the beast.” This position has been endorsed, among others, by Nobel laureates Milton Friedman and Gary Becker in Wall Street Journal columns in 2003. There are two problems with this position.
First, this position is not consistent with the evidence, at least beginning in 1981. In a professional paper published in 2002, I presented evidence that the relative level of federal spending over the period 1981 through 2000 was coincident with the relative level of the federal tax burden in the opposite direction; in other words, there was a strong negative relation between the relative level of federal spending and tax revenues. Controlling for the unemployment rate, federal spending increased by about one-half percent of GDP for each one percentage point decline in the relative level of federal tax revenues. Although not included in the sample for this test, the first three years of the current Bush administration were wholly consistent with this relation.