Will Peak Oil Threaten the Survival of Democracy?

Der Spiegel is reporting that a secret Germany military report that was leaked online claims peak oil has happened or will happen this year, and this could threaten the continued survival of democratic governments. The report from a German Military think-tank cautions that disappearing global oil supplies will endanger the world's economic foundations and possibly lead to mass-scale upheaval over the next 15 to 30 years. International trade would be devastated as the cost of transporting goods across oceans would increase, resulting in "shortages in the supply of vital goods." When Peak Oil hit the United States in the early 1970s, it radically transformed this nation from an oil exporter to an oil importer and began the long-term process of our shoveling trillions of dollars to the Saudis and other oil-exporting nations. Jimmy Carter tried to do something about it, but Ronald Reagan's election put an end to our energy conservation and green energy efforts, killing the early solar industry. Now, as today's news talks of food shortages around the world and much of America's food is imported in oil-fueled ships, Americans are increasingly becoming concerned that Republicans and the oil industry are blocking any efforts whatsoever to move us to alternative fuels.
Comments


Aside from the alternative fuels perspective: "[T]he moment when demand exceeds supply." "Cost of crude oil is predicted to top $100 a barrel." First: As if the price is based on supply and demand (and not completely manipulated). Next: Remember $4.00 a gallon (price speculated well beyond $100 a barrel)? Last: We are warned? What another crock. There could be more production now through 2020 than this world has ever seen. But, production levels are manipulated as well. This is just another excellent example of societal manipulation via ("leaks" through) the Press.

Capitalism tells us that when the price gets too high, alternatives will be used.

Not true wmstoll. The price is already too high and capitalism only thought about profits. Where was capitalism when the Gulf was devestated by the BP oil spill? You have to have regulation...

Actually the law of supply and demand is what tells us not capitalism, and I am sure that price elasticity has something to do with it. When prices do get "too high" (whatever that is, and will vary from individual to individual) either people will be forced to consume less and/or will seek alternatives. I am not really sure what the BP spill comment has to do with economics of peak oil......my guess is this is just more or less of a talking point of some sort to show that capitalism = evil, as if centrally planned economies don't have their own issues....like Chernobyl.

I only found data leading up to 2005 but the US had been a net food exporter for 50 years up to that point, and the only reason that we were about to become (based on 2004 article and data) a net food importer (in $ not tonnage) was because American tastes were trending towards more exotic foods, wines, and beers. So ultimately if oil goes higher we would be able to import less safron and wine, but by no means would our food supply be at risk.

So when oil runs out what's next, water? Capitalism will fail when we run short of the commodities that fuel it, and socialism will have to prevail. It's just a matter of time, and progressive liberals should lead the way for an orderly transition to it. China now is facing the hazards of pollution and shortage of food with capitalism the driving force. The neocon, libertarians, will fight back but we must prevail before they can start a war over oil, using religious differences.
Sinclair Lewis: When fascism comes to America it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross.

9-7-10 Thom, I agree with most everything you say on your TV program. It is good to know there is one other person that knows the truth. I wonder however, why no one ever seems to talk about Hydrogen power ? Why are there no hydrogen powered vehicles available in the U.S. ? The advantages would be that they would create more jobs than there are people to fill them, eliminate air polution (you could drink the clean water that comes out the exhaust pipes), and completely revive our economy. There would be jobs converting gas stations to hydrogen fueling stations, jobs building automobile manufacturing plants, plants to manufacture hydrogen, jobs to staff the automobile manufacturing plants, & jobs for repair technicians. There would be jobs for a host of related services. There would be no need to import oil. It would eliminate oil poluting our oceans and killing marine life, not to mention birds. It would stop devastating people who live in the coastal areas who depend on the ocean for their livelihood, and make the environmentalists happy. There are at least 4 developed countries, poorer than the U.S. that already have hydrogen roads (examples: Norway, India, Canada, China). For more information see HYDROGEN ROAD on the internet, specifically HYNOR (hydrogen Norway).If private industry won't do it, then the government should build a manufacturing plant and show private industry how it is done (Remember how fast this country built airplanes for World War 2, and they started from nothing).
If the poorer countries can afford it, then why cant the richest country (the U.S.) ? Sincerely, Dave

9-7-10 Thom, I agree with most everything you say on your TV program. It is good to know there is one other person that knows the truth. I wonder however, why no one ever seems to talk about Hydrogen power ? Why are there no hydrogen powered vehicles available in the U.S. ? The advantages would be that they would create more jobs than there are people to fill them, eliminate air polution, and completely revive our economy. There would be jobs converting gas stations to hydrogen fueling stations, jobs building automobile manufacturing plants, plants to manufacture hydrogen, jobs to staff the automobile manufacturing plants, & jobs for repair technicians. There would be jobs for a host of related services. There would be no need to import oil. It would eliminate oil poluting our oceans and killing marine life, not to mention birds. It would stop devastating people who live in the coastal areas who depend on the ocean for their livelihood, and make the environmentalists happy. There are at least 4 developed countries, poorer than the U.S. that already have hydrogen roads (examples: Norway, India, Canada, China). For more information see HYDROGEN ROAD on the internet, specifically HYNOR (hydrogen Norway). If the poorer countries can afford it, then why cant the richest country (the U.S.) ? Sincerely, Dave

Dan4liberty: So when oil runs out what's next, water? Capitalism will fail when we run short of the commodities that fuel it, and socialism will have to prevail. – If you believe that commodities will run short then what is the socialist solution when this happens? So far the socialist solutions for peak oil seem to be dump money into ethanol, which has been an abject failure. What are the bright “new” socialist ideas that are going to lead us into an orderly transition that you mention?
David Cantrell: The advantages would be that they would create more jobs than there are people to fill them, eliminate air polution, and completely revive our economy. – I am not aware of any statistics or estimates on how many jobs would be created so if you have some I would be interested in seeing them. I tend to think that this line of thinking is similar to Bastiat’s “Broken Window Fallacy”. Obviously eliminating our need for fossil fuels is a good thing, but unfortunately there are problems with hydrogen that need to be addressed before it becomes viable on a large scale. The energy needed to produce the hydrogen has to come from somewhere. In the near term that probably means an increase in coal consumption to produce the additional power to produce the hydrogen. Hydrogen while plentiful, is not cheap to produce. As increases in technology become more viable and as oil becomes more expensive the market will move away from oil to the best alternative, hydrogen or otherwise.
David Cantrell: If private industry won't do it, then the government should build a manufacturing plant and show private industry how it is done (Remember how fast this country built airplanes for World War 2, and they started from nothing). – Its not that private industry can’t do it, the issue is that there is no profit in doing it. It would require massive subsidies. The WWII reference proves my point. Boeing was competing for (and won) the contracts against Douglas and Martin to produce the B-17, which replaced the Martin B-10. We had planes, we even had warplanes, but up to that point there was not the need for large scale numbers of them. When the need was there, industry responded.
Are you kidding me?! An activist is in violation of parol by friending another known "activist" on facebook. I feel the screws clamping down even tighter!
http://missoulanews.bigskypress.com/IndyBlog/archives/2010/08/24/faceboo...