Why Hillary Clinton Is In Serious Danger Of Losing To Trump

This election should be a cakewalk, but Hillary Clinton is in serious danger of losing to Donald Trump.

Although she still has about a 5 point edge in some national polls, the monster lead she had over Trump late in the summer has all but vanished.

The race is even tighter if you look at the state level, where Trump is now ahead of Clinton in key swing states like North Carolina, Florida, and Ohio.

He's also pulling away in Nevada, which voted for President Obama in both 2008 and 2012.

These are astounding developments.

Just a few months ago, after the Democratic Convention and Trump's attacks on the Khan family, it looked like Hillary Clinton was on the verge of the biggest electoral landslide since 1984, when Ronald Reagan obliterated Walter Mondale.

But now the race is tighter than it's ever been, and even though 538.com still gives Clinton a 58.8 percent chance of winning, there's a growing sense among many progressives -- myself included -- that Clinton's fortunes are sinking fast.

So... what the heck happened?

Well, first and foremost the media happened.

By focusing nonstop on pseudo-scandals involving the Clinton Foundation and almost completely ignoring real scandals involving the Donald J. Trump Foundation, Trump University, and other Trump business scandals, mainstream corporate media has created a false equivalency between the candidates, one that has led many voters to trust Hillary less and Donald Trump more than they should.

If you ask me, this was intentional: it helped create some drama in an election that was starting to look like a blowout, and drama produces better ratings and profits for the networks.

But intentional or not, Clinton's plummeting electoral chances aren't just the fault of the mainstream media.

They're also the fault of the Clinton campaign itself.

Instead of mobilizing the Democratic base, it's spent the past few months rehabilitating Bush-era neocons to try to talk other Republicans out of voting for Trump.

These people were completely discredited over a decade ago, but the Clinton campaign is now giving them new life with ads like this.

If the Clinton campaign thinks ads like that are going to put their candidate in the White House, then they deserve to lose.

That's because this election, like the 2008 election before it, is a change election -- it's a contest between insiders and outsiders.

So when Clinton shows off the support she has from people like Max Boot, all she does is confirm what people already suspect about her, that she's an insider who's way too close with the people who are selling this country down the river.

That's not to say, though, that Clinton shouldn't try to win over some Republican voters.

But what her campaign is doing right now is just insane, and it's made worse by the fact that she's not really giving people any clear and positive reasons to vote for her.

The main thrust of Clinton's pitch to Republicans, and really her campaign as a whole at this point, is that she's "not Trump."

Sure, we heard some stuff about "America is already great" at the convention, but really what Clinton has run on for the past few months is the idea that she's a responsible, qualified candidate who won't mess things up.

As logical as it sounds, that's not how you win an election, especially not a change election like this one.

You win an election like this one by giving people concrete reasons to vote for you.

You need to sell them on a vision, a set of policies, a narrative -- any one of these thing will do. You just need to have a positive vision and run on it.

This is what Bernie did in the Democratic primaries, it's what Trump is doing right now in his own strange way, and it's what Clinton's campaign is failing to do now, to the detriment of her campaign and the country.

Which is tragic, because she already has all she needs to run a positive campaign.

The Democratic Party now has the most progressive platform in its history, something Clinton herself likes to point out at her campaign stops that are almost never covered by the media.

So, instead of just talking about the platform at rallies, she should run on it in her advertising.

She should rally voters around things like raising the minimum wage, passing a public option for Obamacare, free college, stopping climate change, and making the rich pay their fair share of taxes.

These are all very popular policies, and they're part of a narrative that Clinton should be selling to the American public but isn't, apparently because she's following the great recent Democratic tradition of hiring people who are great at losing a winnable campaign.

This election is as important and as close as any in my lifetime, and a whole more is at stake than many people realize.

Let's hope Hillary Clinton rises to the occasion with a positive message before it's too late.


deepspace's picture
deepspace 7 years 39 weeks ago

This is the 100 year anniversary of the Irish 1916 uprising, so being Irish American I've been brushing up on their rather fascinating history. One book in particularly stands out as quite relevant to modern day attitudes and ideologies on prominent display around the world by various political leaders, especially in the United States. In "The Famine Plot" (2015), renowned author Tim Pat Coogan fleshes out an old Irish saying that "God brought the blight, but the British brought the famine." The worst atrocity in Irish history (which is saying a lot!) can be boiled down to the intersection of three dynamics at play: religious fundamentalism; ethnic hatred; laizzez-faire economics. Sound familiar?

quantum's picture
quantum 7 years 39 weeks ago

The longer this contest plays out the more likely it is that Clinton will lose. If a major stock market correction happens before voting day, she is almost guaranteed to lose.

As bad as Trump is, he is still the outsider candidate that people are running towards because both of the major political parties are extremely corrupt. He is the outsider who knows nothing about diplomacy or how our government is run.

Yes, he will cause us great harm as a country, but since Clinton is a war hawk, it is uncertain as to which candidate will cause more harm to us in our standing the world.

I'm getting disgusted with the whole thing and plan on writing in NONE OF THE ABOVE on my ballot for the presidency. I will vote for down ticket Democrats but I am going to refuse to vote for either/any of the piss poor candidates in the presidential race.

IM Jussayin 7 years 39 weeks ago

The Clinton campaign apparently can't figure out why Bernie's supporters aren't rushing to get behind her. Think maybe it's because she's lying down with dogs. I don't want to see her make a complete left turn as that might turn off some of the folks in the middle, but if they're looking to the hawks to make a difference...

2950-10K's picture
2950-10K 7 years 39 weeks ago

"She's an insider who's way too close with the people who are selling this country down the river."

No one is selling this country down the river like Paul Ryan is trying to, not even close. Last I knew Trump was running with a character almost as extreme as Ryan, a guy named Mike Pence. This puts Trump in that same camp despite his efforts to lie his way out of it.

If Clinton wants to win, she needs to connect Trump with Ryan and his budget plans. The country needs to know just what is in those plans.......It will be the death of the Teapublic Party!

BTW: Not a word about Clinton on Lester Holt's network tonight, not a peep....all Trump. You wouldn't even know Trump is running against someone, and Bernie has been totally erased from the corpse media....but of course.

2950-10K's picture
2950-10K 7 years 39 weeks ago

The Democrats are always so lame when it comes to playing offense....Why not repeat over and over something as simple as the Teapublic Party played a major role in sending your jobs overseas and continues to desire more of that.....Trump sent his jobs overseas too.

Paul Ryan and the Teapublic party want to hand the trillions in the Social Security trust fund over to Wall Street banksters....and so does Trump....as per his secret meeting with Ryan.

The Teapublic Party denies climate change! ...and so does Trump.

The Teapublic Party is against a living wage. ..and so is Trump.

The Teapublic Party is against single payer! ...and so is Trump.

Paul Ryan and his Teapublic Party want to cut taxes on the billionaires and raise them on the working class. ...and Trump will sign Ryan's budget plan.

My god , it's endless!...why not offense all the time.

c-gull's picture
c-gull 7 years 39 weeks ago

The process is still confined to two parties that try to out manipulate each other and the general public. Our choices are once again dictated by the corporate few.

The propanganda used by the republican right which was modeled after that of nazi Germany and has had a chilling effect on the US and nobody seems to recognize it except for a few sociologists and the black folks that have had their peers gunned down like dogs by so called "police".

The DNC got its way and cast Bernie Sanders aside to take away any chance of real democratic reform.

Out here in Montana if you don't like a republican or democratic candidate and if there is only one running for an office- if you don't vote for them and leave the box on your ballet unchecked for that person your ballot is discarded.

It seems that our nation is simply repeating the ugly behavior of imperial Rome in a continuing effort to enrich the hierarchy and make slaves of the populations of the world.

There is a kind of evil at work that writers like Hanah Arendt wrote about to expose, but it seems that Americans have not learned the necessary lessons yet. Evil continues to prevail.

If you vote in any capacity for evil then what can you expect for our future?

Hephaestus's picture
Hephaestus 7 years 39 weeks ago

c-gull : I believe your observation is somewhere on the mark regarding usa political parallels with the rise of Nazi germany

The german populace in general did not recognise what was happening either... did they?

However, certain individuals and organisations did and were complicit in despicable actions that subsequently became war crimes

Sadly, the current madness that is going on is likely to result in WW III

Depending on the type of ww, results will always enrich banksters

Of course, total human obliteration will simply leave a few with huge amounts of money they can do nothing with

Nobody gets it yet!

But, that's the trajectory it seems!

stopgap's picture
stopgap 7 years 39 weeks ago

I'm not sure that I'm bothered by the Hillary ads all that much. Actually, I thought the ad was not all that bad. I don't think it's the base that she has to worry about; Trump is insuring the Democratic base for Hillary every time he opens his mouth. It's the middle voters that tend to be swayed either way that she has to worry about…and I'm not sure that they are sophisticated or knowledgeable enough to make the insider connection.

I do think however, that she really needs to go at him in the debate about releasing his taxes by making the statement to his face, in front of the world - that he is as big a fraud as his fraudulent claim that he can't release his taxes because he is being audited.

She needs to say to Trumps face and in front of the world that he couldn't be elected dogcatcher if he released his taxes because it would prove what a fraud he is about being a billionaire 5 times over. It would show that he and the companies with his name on them are deeply in debt to the Chinese. It would prove what a fraud he is regarding his charitable giving. It would prove that he doesn't pay any taxes and so on, and so on

If she had the guts to say these things to his face in front of the world, it would prove to he world what a coward he really is… because if he ever did release his taxes… he couldn't be elected dogcatcher, and therefore he will never release his taxes.

dianhow 7 years 39 weeks ago

Clinton a war hawk ?? Ironic when it was GOP Bush Cheney who lied us into Iraq, waged 2 long failed wars, wasted several trillion of our tax dollars, killed, maimed our veterans, made more enemies than ever, which led to ISIS . Bush & War monger Cheney ( Halliburton made billions off Iraq war ) Bush admin ignored several CIA warnings about a coming Bin laden attack, last warning 8/6/01 . Bush gave up finding Bin laden . Brave Seals / Obama got that job done ! Only reason T rump has any chance is millions of his ' fans ' are ignorant, clueless, very poorly educated, lack ability to think critically . When erratic irrational bombastic Trump gets Pi $$ ed off he may use Nukes - start WW 3 ! Supreme court is in danger of being stacked with Pro Wealth anti middle class right wing Greedy Immoral judges who will rule for decades to come


sfu1m3r's picture
sfu1m3r 7 years 39 weeks ago

When Michael Hayden was campaigning publicly, that's when Clinton was viewed as a slam dunk. Now what does CIA want us to do?

Otis B Driftwood's picture
Otis B Driftwood 7 years 39 weeks ago

Yeah, well, maybe Clinton isn't a "progressive" after all, Thom. No one believes she cares about a progressive agenda. And while you're right that she would do better to avoid reminding people that she has the support of neocons and war criminals, the fact that she isn't talking about progressive issues tells me two things: 1) that she never really believed in these things, and 2) that she is more concerned about winning the votes of republicans.

It's a failing strategy. She is a terrible candidate. Insincere, calculating, a champion of the 1%. And I suspect she will be destroyed in the duopoly debate. I won't watch because there is nothing to learn. Trump and Clinton represent the nadir of our political system. We have no choice, more people identify as independent now than ever before, and third party candidates have been arbitrarily excluded from the debates and, by extension, the general election.

So rather than having a choice, people are "inexplicably" voting for a used car salesman as a protest against the rigged two-party system. I can understand that, even if Mrs. Clinton (see her abysmal 50 point rant today) still doesn't grasp it.

But I'm having none of it. I'm voting for the only genuine progressive left in the race - Jill Stein.

Otis B Driftwood's picture
Otis B Driftwood 7 years 39 weeks ago

With all due respect, 2950-10K, Clinton is the other side of the same coin. How do you think we got to this sorry state of affairs? It wasn't magic. It has been the result of years of joint neoliberal and neoconservative leadership.

Pelham's picture
Pelham 7 years 39 weeks ago

I'll have to disagree with you about the Trump Foundation vs. the Clinton Foundation. For one thing, Trump's vanity foundation is peanuts compared with the Clintons', and for another, the Clinton Foundation was clearly a pay-to-play scheme, especially during Hillary's tenure at State. The access afforded donors could pay off in any number of major ways across a range of highly consequential policy decisions that would never be traceable. The access itself was the quid in the quid pro quo.

Trump University, however, is certainly a sleazy operation. But then, how about Bill Clinton's nearly $18 million in pay from a for-profit university for essentially doing nothing?

The best one can say about Hillary Clinton is that she's a horrible choice for president but might be better than Trump across a narrow but important array of issues, notably climate change. On the other hand, a number of serious left-leaning thinkers have lately made the case that she is absolutely a more dangerous choice on foreign policy issues, notably with her reckless neoconservative determination to push Russia to the brink as well as her clearly disastrous preference for upsetting the apple cart in the MIddle East, with endlessly bloody consequences. Trump's proposal to bar Muslims from the US is characterized as racist, but on this score oddly Clinton gets a pass for unleashing madness in the Middle East that kills thousands of Muslims.

Mark J. Saulys's picture
Mark J. Saulys 7 years 39 weeks ago

I like this video, describes Thom and some others.

Hillary Called Honest, Crowd Erupts In Laughter A…: http://youtu.be/1FB8mH0SEw8

Greg Kramer's picture
Greg Kramer 7 years 38 weeks ago

HRC lost the debate, Thom. She looked like Bambi's mom caught in the headlights.

Legend 7 years 38 weeks ago

Vote the 2016 Party Platforms. Google them and compare. Then vote for the Party not the candidates.

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