If Biden Wins, Get Ready for Trump to Punish America

Thom plus logo What could happen to America if Trump were to further, severely crash the U.S. economy the day after Joe Biden is announced as the winner of the 2020 presidential race?

As Trump tweeted on June 15, 2019, "if anyone but me takes over... there will be a Market Crash the likes of which has not been seen before!"

On July 6, 2020, he tweeted, "If you want your 401k's and Stocks, which are getting close to an all time high (NASDAQ is already there), to disintegrate and disappear, vote for the Radical Left Do Nothing Democrats and Corrupt Joe Biden."

And on July 27, 2020, he further tweeted that "if Sleepy Joe Biden, the puppet of the Left, ever won. Markets would crash and cities would burn. Our Country would suffer like never before."

Meanwhile, the meme is spreading. CCN Markets was quoting traders saying that a Biden win would cut 25 percent from the stock market, and Forbes is suggesting Biden "would be bad for businesses and could negatively impact the stock market." Yahoo Finance quotes AdvisorShares CEO Noah Hamman as saying "a 25 percent decline is not an unreasonable expectation" if Biden wins.

Even the New York Times got into the act, with Matt Phillips writing that "the Trump tax cuts were a windfall for major American corporations, helping to drive up the profitability of companies in the S&P 500 more than 20 percent in 2018." The suggestion is that reversing that tax cut will drive profitability down, and stock prices would follow.

All of these scenarios simply envision Biden removing the "sugar high" of unusually low corporate and billionaire tax rates through a Biden reversal of Trump's $1.5 trillion tax cut.

But what if Trump decides he wants a slice of his favorite meal - revenge - and will get it during the nearly three months between the November 3 election and Biden's inauguration on January 20?

What if Trump decides to punish America for not being sufficiently loyal to him, and that punishment is to drive America into a second Republican Great Depression while he's handing the government over to Biden?

He now has the power to make this Depression, amplified by the pandemic, far, far worse than the Republican Great Depression of 1930, now that he's cowed the Fed. It's almost like it was set up in advance.

Jerome Powell is the first Fed chief in two generations who's not an economist; instead, he's a lawyer, a multimillionaire private equity banker and former partner with the Carlyle Group, whose BA was in politics. And politics is where Powell shines. In a complete abrogation of the rules governing the Fed, he's created roughly $7 trillion (one-third of the entire nation's normal annual GDP) out of thin air and used much of that money to buy corporate stock and bonds to keep the stock market afloat. In its 107-year history, the Fed has never, ever done this; some observers consider it illegal. And the rest of the world is watching, as the dollar drops in value (and gold skyrockets) relative to other currencies, another sign that both inflation and economic disaster are on the horizon.

So, imagine that all the ballots are counted on, say, November 20, and Joe Biden is declared the winner. The next day, the Fed stops supporting the stock and corporate bond markets, and the Dow drops over the following few months to 7,800, roughly where it was in October 2008, the last time a Republican administration goosed the economy to keep things looking good until an election (although Bush mistimed it by a bit short of a year).

Making things even worse, Powell could announce that he's actively working to drive up interest rates (a function related to inflation).

That would cause a tsunami of corporate bankruptcies (corporate debt is currently higher than any other time in American history) and a collapse of the housing market just as Biden is stepping into the White House.

Powell recently suggested he's considering just such a move, as CNBC reported on August 4 with the headline: "The Fed is expected to make a major commitment to ramping up inflation soon."

If Trump and Powell do this, Republican commentators will be all over TV and other media saying that the crash was entirely because Biden was elected. It'll be a bald-faced lie, but the GOP has been peddling this kind of crap since the Reagan Revolution.

Getting our economic house in order, then, will be a more herculean effort than Franklin Delano Roosevelt pulled off after Republican President Herbert Hoover's tax-cut and deregulation policies crashed the economy in 1930, and could take well over a decade.

And then there's the matter of Trump showing the fascists in the GOP where the weaknesses are in our three branches of government. If a major market crash and even more widespread unemployment, homelessness and hunger than we're experiencing today were to ripple across the country, a surge of protesters into the streets is probable.

And Trump's been rehearsing how to respond to that, particularly in Portland, as Charles P. Pierce lays out in Esquire.

This would play right into the hands of right-wing groups that are openly working for a race-based second civil war, a replay of The Turner Diaries, the book that inspired Timothy McVeigh.

Trump and Attorney General William Barr have already revealed a number of areas where our rule of law is sadly deficient, including the inability to hold a president to account for crimes he has committed while in office and the damage a president can do by gutting almost every federal agency and then putting lobbyists in charge of them.

Many of the holes, cracks and weaknesses in our republic that Trump has exploited were put into place by the Supreme Court in the 1970s and by Congress after 9/11. It's so bad that the headline of a Rolling Stone article by David S. Cohen notes, "Donald Trump is trying to start a race war. And with the Insurrection Act, he has the statutory authority to do so."

America needs a major reboot.

The Buckley v. Valeo and First National Bank of Boston v. Bellotti Supreme Court decisions of the 1970s gave corporations and billionaires the "free speech right" to own politicians and political parties, and the Patriot Act and other similar legislation since 9/11 have given the president vast police powers that, throughout history, we've only seen in authoritarian, strongman governments.

We must reevaluate, rescind and replace all of these, if our republic is to survive the fresh hell that Trump and his right-wing paramilitaries are apparently planning for this fall and winter.

If Democrats acquire federal power through holding the House and taking the Senate and White House, the entire country needs to be laser-focused on stripping the oligarchic and fascistic elements that have crept into our republic since the Powell memo, multiple Supreme Court interventions, and the Patriot Act with its associated war crimes and torture.

America today is at a turning point, and whether we continue our slide into fascism and oligarchy, or pull back to small-d democratic values will depend, in no small part, on the planning and work we do now, and the candidates and policies we support and put forward two and four years from now.



Legend 3 years 44 weeks ago

Amazed that this is not getting more publicity. On top of destroying the Postal Service, destroying the economy and letting the Covid-19 Pandemic runs wild in the country. Trump has hijacked 4 Iranian Tankers full of gasoline sailing to Venezuela. Why can 2 sovereign countries not trade with each other? What effect will this have on the Strait or Hormuz? What right do we have to hijack ships in International waters?

Legend 3 years 43 weeks ago

How could anybody read this and vote for Trump?

whatabout's picture
whatabout 3 years 43 weeks ago

Another entire week of broadcast hate and divisiveness from you Thom. During that past week did you spend one minute looking into the Trump negotiated normalization of relations between Israel and the UAE? I think not.

Whether this is temporary or not it is a very noteworthy event that deserves at least 1% of the time you would have devoted to it if Obama had pulled this off.

Or maybe this bit of cheer,

South Dakota declines $400 boost to unemployment aid under Trump's executive order because 80% of residents have 'got their jobs back'

I understand it is hard to be objective when your hometown is on fire and crime is out of control to the extent that sixty 911 calls for help went unheeded last night but that is what we have come to expect in democrat run cities.

In the words of the hair sniffer, "come on man", buck up, and give your president a nod in his direction for a job well done.

stopgap's picture
stopgap 3 years 43 weeks ago

In 1974, the Firesign Theatre released an album titled, “Everything You Know Is Wrong.” If one assumes that as Trump said, referring to himself, “I’m the only one that can fix it” then surly the Firesign Theatre was right.

For instance, who would of thought that the problem with the post office is that the mail moves to quickly to its destinations? Who would of thought that the solution would be to cut back on labor and undo sorting machines that sort mail thousands of times faster than humanly possible? Who would of thought that automation is the root of making all manufacturing and business in the US, non cost effective?

Wait until all of those CEOs and corporate leaders realize that all automation since the onset of the Industrial Age is the reason that America is falling behind all those Third World Nations. If only we had Trump two hundred years ago, think where we would be today?

Who would of thought that having all those drop boxes for the convenience of its customers is actually making the post office less attractive to its customers…that it is actually better to require customers to schlep all their mail to the local post office no matter how infirm, aged, or immobile they may be. True, this is probably contrary to traditional thinking but when you are a “stable genius” like Trump, then opposite thinking is likely to seem unusual to those of us that are not “stable geniuses.”

Another example of Trump’s, opposite “stable genius” thinking, that is probably contrary to the way the rest of us might normally handle a pandemic, is the concept that during a pandemic is is much better to crowd as many people as possible together as often as possible to optimize exposure to the virus. I know, you’re thinking this is contrary to hundreds of years of medical science. But this is what makes a “stable genius” like Trump so uniquely special.

I know from the beginning of Trump’s campaign to be President, many of us have been skeptical of his “stable genius” but all we have to do is look at the results. Can America get any greater???

stopgap's picture
stopgap 3 years 43 weeks ago

Mark Meadows, being interviewed today by Jake Tapper (the best poker face of all time) responded to Tapper’s comment that “their is no evidence of voter fraud” by saying “that there is no evidence that there is not voter fraud.”

So, following that line of thinking, then, consider that there is no evidence that Trump is not a child molester…there is no evidence that Trump is not a rapist…there is no evidence that Trump is not a pathological liar…there is no evidence that Trump is not in the pocket of Vladimir Putin…there is no evidence that Trump did not overvalue and undervalue properties for the purposes of cheating on taxes and lying to get loans…there is no evidence that Trump did not steal from his charities…and so on…and so.

However, we don’t see any concern by Meadows regarding any of these activities, even though there is tons more evidence that Trump may be guilty of any and all of these, than there is of any voter fraud anywhere.

davidfetter's picture
davidfetter 3 years 43 weeks ago

Thanks for mentioning Buckley v. Valeo and First National Bank of Boston v. Bellotti. It's hard to overstate the damage done by (essentially) giving the act of spending money First Amendment protection.

While we're going for real change, let's think big. I'm thinking a Constitutional amendment called Foxes Never Guard Chicken Coops, where conflicts of interest are made /per se/ illegal.

stopgap's picture
stopgap 3 years 43 weeks ago

Gee! I almost forgot about EXPERIENCE, Regarding Trump’s new “Stable Genius Thinking.” Now pay attention to this Fortune 500 companies, Never! Never! hire anyone to oversee any position that has experience in that field!

Even Trump had to learn this the hard way. When he first took over the Whitehouse, he made the mistake of filling out his Cabinets with people that had experience or expertise in those areas. Of course, he had to fire each and every one of them. There was no way they could not conflict with the revolutionary thinking of “Stable Genius Thinking” and therefore had to be unceremoniously escorted from the Whitehouse.

If fact, when applying to fill a job or Cabinet position in the Trump administration, never, ever admit to having any experience…Never!! Better to deny that you have a resume at all. If the application asks for “Experience” better to list your stock market holdings, especially if they directly conflict with the job you are seeking. In the event someone offers evidence of you having experience, simply brand it as “Fake News” Left wing propaganda! Antifa conspiracy!

vetinla's picture
vetinla 3 years 43 weeks ago

I'd be happy if our candidates would simply remember two words when COVID-45 and his sycophants call them Socialists; "Mixed Economy". Virtually every 1st world economy is "Mixed", including ours, and all the economies we're taught are "Socialist" are in reality "Mixed Economies", Even China and Cuba are moving that way.

vetinla's picture
vetinla 3 years 43 weeks ago

I'd be happy if our candidates would simply remember two words when COVID-45 and his sycophants call them Socialists; "Mixed Economy". Virtually every 1st world economy is "Mixed", including ours, and all the economies we're taught are "Socialist" are in reality "Mixed Economies", Even China and Cuba are moving that way.

vetinla's picture
vetinla 3 years 43 weeks ago

I'm simply amazed that our favorite "leg humper" for DJT can back someone who openly advocates electoral fraud, by suppressing the post offices ability to function as a vote by mail deliverer.

IT must feel like one hellva' American..

vetinla's picture
vetinla 3 years 43 weeks ago

As to the so-called "peace agreement" being talked about; Another big "nothing burger" forwarded by COVID-45 to fool more rubes. Just like everything else, all BS, and no substance. DJT's overriding essence..

karlmarx1947's picture
karlmarx1947 3 years 43 weeks ago

To the topic of the article is basically what Jerome Powell could do to the economy and business if Trump loses. Regretabbly Powel has that power as Trump has the power to start a nuclear war without cause. I suspect this is not going to happen as Trump is not going to Nuke say China. That being said Thom is correct that our so called creaky and dangerous democracy that gives too much power to "leaders" needs to be redesigned.

karlmarx1947's picture
karlmarx1947 3 years 42 weeks ago

While these events could happen, the main executor is Jay Powell. If Powell does as Thom envisages many billionaires will be badly hurt. Its unclear why Powell would want to Punish the U.S.A. for electing a Democrat, as opposed to Trump. In any event, Powell could in theory be removed in theory for cause. The chairman of the Fed in his domain is more powerful than the President and checks on his/her power would be appropriate.

jamesMathis's picture
jamesMathis 3 years 33 weeks ago

America today is at a turning point, yes !

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